Participation changes across Queensland

There has been a lot written about the fact that the Participation Rates across Australia fell sharply as the effects of the COVID-19 lock-down took effect. These falls at national, state and regional level had the effect of suppressing the anticipated rises in the unemployment rates. Participation rates, prior to …read more

Population growth in Cairns slows sharply

The ABS release of regional population estimates to June 2019 shows that growth in the Cairns SA4 region has slowed sharply to just 0.75% for the year. This is just half the rate of the Queensland Government’s own forecast (released in early 2019) which saw growth averaging 1.5% in Cairns …read more

The drivers behind Participation changes across QLD

There’s been plenty written about the fact that the Participation Rate across Australia is at, or near, record highs and the effect this has had on suppressing unemployment rate declines, even as employment growth remains reasonable. Participation rates are so high largely due to significant shifts in the participation of the …read more

Updated impacts on Participation Rates across QLD from demographic and propensity effects

Some months ago we considered the impacts of changes in age and sex demographics within the labour force and the impact this was having on Participation Rates across Queensland. You can read the original post here which outlines the methodology used to split out the Propensity and Demographic Impacts within …read more

Shifting Participation Rates in Queensland regions

Some months ago we considered the impacts of changes in age and sex demographics within the labour force and the impact this was having on Participation Rates across Queensland. You can read the original post here which outlines the methodology used to split out the Propensity and Demographic Impacts within …read more

Public Sector employment data shows the fiscal principle still not being met…and the Govt appear to want to move the goal posts

The release of the December quarter Public Sector work force data (which was released over the weekend) shows (again) that the Government’s fiscal principle of keeping full-time equivalent Public Sector employment growth to that of population growth has not been met. FTE growth in the year to Dec 2018 was +3.0%, well above …read more

Far North population growth lags QLD average. Townsville losing out

The ABS today released their population estimates for June 30th 2018 for regional areas. Within our region the Local Government Areas have all fared worse that the state average. Of particular interest is the fact that Townsville’s growth came in at just 0.6% for the year (down from +0.9% in …read more

How female participation has effected QLD’s regions

A few weeks ago we wrote a post on some work we had done breaking down changes in Participation Rates in QLD regions to discover the impact that changes to the age profile of the working population had (you can read that here). That post attracted some interest and one …read more

What is a “per capita recession”? Are we in one? And does it matter?

Last week we saw a weak set of National Accounts for the final quarter of 2018 which showed growth of just 0.2% q/q, 2.3% y/y and 2.8% 12 month average (commentary here). As this data was released we also started seeing a lot of talk (primarily on Twitter initially before …read more

What’s driving Participation changes across QLD’s regions? A closer look.

Many commentators have written about movements in the Participation Rate (PR) and the impact this has on unemployment rates; if participation increases then any decline in the unemployment rate is harder to achieve with more people entering the labour force (and vice versa). The discussion is certainly a valid one, but …read more

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