The RBA’s energy chapter has FNQ written all over it

Buried in the Statement on Monetary Policy released last week is an ‘In Depth’ chapter on the impact of higher global energy prices on the Australian economy. It is worth reading on its own merits, but it is worth reading with one specific question in mind: what does this mean …read more

RBA hikes to 4.35%; SoMP forecasts Trimmed Mean peak of 3.8%

The RBA Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate by 25bps to 4.35% on Tuesday, the third consecutive hike of 2026 and the third consecutive line-ball call delivered with the same answer. The vote, however, was anything but line-ball this time: 8-1 in favour of the hike, with one member …read more

Quarterly Trimmed Mean ticks up to 3.5%, and that is the read the RBA is watching

Last week’s March quarter CPI release threw up two different stories depending on which line you read. The new monthly CPI Indicator had the Trimmed Mean unchanged at 3.3% over the year to March. The quarterly series, still published as an appendix to the main release and the measure the …read more

Cairns Trend unemployment rate falls to 4.2% in March

The latest ABS Labour Force release for March, combined with our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series, shows the Cairns labour market has continued the recovery that started late last year. Trend employment in Cairns rose to 145,730 people in March, up 1,980 (+1.4%) over the year, and the Trend unemployment …read more

ABS Labour Force Survey modernises from April; expect delays and fewer tables through August

The ABS is modernising its Labour Force Survey from the April 2026 reference period. Over the next five months (April through August), headline releases will be pushed back by one week, and six regular tables will be paused. Normal service resumes with the September reference month release in October 2026. …read more

Inflation still a problem

Despite the fact that the headline CPI for February dipped slightly from 3.8% to 3.7%, inflation is clearly still a problem. This monthly data read will not be showing the effect of the oil prices prices we have seen during March. In addition, the Trimmed Mean measure of core inflation …read more

A Conversation with My AI Partner

What happens when an economist sits down for a podcast interview with an AI? I have been using AI extensively in my consulting work for well over a year now. Not as a delegation tool, but as something closer to a collaborative partner. I use it to research, to bounce …read more

Queensland Outpaces the Nation: Dec Household Spending Insights

Queensland continues to demonstrate economic resilience, with the latest December data showing the state significantly outperforming the national average in household spending. Whether looking at current prices or inflation-adjusted chain volumes, the Sunshine State is doing well. Key Takeaways: Robust Growth Across the Board Queensland’s total trend household spending rose …read more

Is it really government spending that made the RBA hike?

Since the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps on Tuesday there has been a lot of commentary (much of it unfortunately heavily politically slanted!) about whether it’s the government’s fault that inflation has stayed higher for longer than the RBA would like. The RBA Governor has been extremely careful …read more

JobSeekers data shows the relative strength in Cairns

JobSeeker numbers are clearly moving higher as the labour market eases across the country. However, what is also becoming very clear is that the labour market in Cairns is holding up a lot better than elsewhere. Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend JobSeekers • Australia are up 8.1% y/y • across Queensland …read more

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