Google mobility data as a proxy for economic activity

Google have been providing data on their “Community Mobility Indexes” for some timeĀ  to help track the impacts of COVID-19 (you can get further details here). The indexes measure movement in six categories; Grocery & pharmacy Mobility trends for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, …read more

Melbourne lock-down means changes to JobKeeper even more restrictive; extra 260,000 may lose needed support

The lock-down now in place in Melbourne could see an additional 260,000 workers miss out on JobKeeper (JK) support due to the 2-quarters requirements of the new regime. On our pre-lock-down estimates we would have seen the JK 1.0 original 3.5 million figure drop to 2.0 million in Oct had …read more

Small Area Labour Market data for March

The Dept of Employment SALM data (Small Area Labour Market) is the only official data that provides a look at the labour markets at Local Govt and SA2 level. Although there are limitations to the data (not least of which is that it is only quarterly) it does provide us …read more

Building Approvals tumble in June

The residential building approvals data from the ABS for June show another steep decline. Approvals fell 4.9% m/m (seasonally adjusted) which takes the year-on-year decline to 15.8%. House approvals are down 6.4% for the year while units are off 30.2%. In Queensland total approvals fell 10.9% m/m and are now …read more

Updating our model with the new JobKeeper 2.0 impacts

Last week the Govt confirmed the details of the JobKeeper extension (JK 2.0) which will be in place when the original JobKeeper (JK 1.0) expires at the end of Sept. Details are available at the Treasury website. Essentially for a business to be eligible for JK 2.0, from October to …read more

Regional labour force shows improvement in June

In common with the national and State data seen last week (see here for details) the regional data for June shows an improvement across many regions. The Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend shows a similar story panning out across both Greater Brisbane and the Rest of QLD. In Greater Brisbane Trend …read more

Labour Force data…something for everyone

Today’s June Labour Force data has provided something for everyone…and a big surprise for most. Expectations had been for employment to improve by about 100K in June with the unemployment rate either going up slightly, staying stable, or moving down slightly depending upon what you thought participation was going to …read more

Cairns jobs are recovering….but still well below national average

Payrolls data from the ABS (sourced weekly from the ATO’s Single Touch Payroll system) shows that payrolls across the nation were down 5.7% by the 27th June from their levels in mid-March. Across Queensland the decline was slightly better at 5.2%. Data at the regional level at this stage is …read more

Why the ABS have suspended many Trend series…an example

As the extreme impacts on a raft of economic data collected by them became clear the ABS, in many instances, have suspended the production of their Trend estimates. The reason the ABS have provided is along the lines of the following (which relates specifically to the Labour Force data but …read more

Residential Building Approvals falling fast in regional QLD

Last week we saw the data for residential Building Approvals from the ABS for May (see commentary here) which showed QLD approvals fell 14.8% y/y. Today the regional, original data from the ABS allows us to update our own Conus Trend. This shows approvals in Greater Brisbane were down 7.8% …read more

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