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Much has happened since we last updated our model projections. We’ve had the ABS regional labour force data (see here for commentary and the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trends) which showed large declines in participation across the nation, state and regions; the ABS produced their Payroll data up to the week …read more
I spoke about regional employment in Central and North Queensland on a webinar organised by Solar Citizens yesterday. I was joined by Solar Citizens National Director, Ellen Roberts and David Leitch from energy specialist consultancy ITK who spoke about the opportunities in the solar and wind space for Central and …read more
The release of the April Labour Force survey today was always expected to throw up some surprises. This is the first monthly data set that reveals the true extent of the COVID-19 impacts on the labour market. Market expectations around the level of employment losses had been remarkably similar (given …read more
The March Arrivals and Departures data from the ABS this morning, while looking horrible, is likely to be eclipsed by even more disturbing numbers in the future. March saw a decline of 59.9% in short term international arrivals from the same month a year ago Over the course of the …read more
The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more
After the Victorian unit led surge in approvals in February (see here for details) the market was prepared for a substantial decline in the March data. The result was rather better than expected with just a 4.0% m/m decline (seasonally adjusted). The less volatile Trend series moved back into positive …read more
I spent part of this morning listening to Prof John Kay, author of Radical Uncertainty: Decision making for an unknowable future, talking to my friend Gene Tunny on his Economics Explained podcast. It’s a fascinating chat about a highly topical subject (although the book was written prior to the COVID-19 …read more
As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September. Things …read more
The ABS released their original, unadjusted regional labour force data this morning which allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for the QLD SA4 regions. While last week we saw the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland decline to 5.7% (see here for details) today’s data …read more
Yesterday saw the ABS release the first of their weekly releases looking at payroll and wages data. This new data set, well in advance of the full April Labour Force survey, gives us a first opportunity (albeit with some caveats and reservations) to see the impact of the COVID-19 inspired …read more
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series