The regions which have been doing best, and worst through 2020

We have recently expanded the coverage of our Conus and Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data series to include WA and now have regional data for NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA. So, with the release of the Dec 2020 data recently, it seemed appropriate to take a look at …read more

Payrolls data suggests things are better in early 2021 than 2020…but beware obvious conclusions!

Data out this week from the ABS for Payrolls suggests that the labour market was actually stronger¬† in early January this year than it was at the same time last. With a year’s worth of data we can now, for the first time, make year-on-year comparisons of this series. The …read more

Weekly Payrolls continue to improve but there are some concerns for Small Business (and Townsville)

The ABS weekly payrolls data (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system) updated its latest series yesterday and today. What we see is a clear national improvement being driven largely by the recovery in Victoria as the state continues to come out of lock-down. Victoria registered a 1.4% improvement …read more

Border openings showing in the Google Mobility data

The long grind back to something approaching ‘normal’ continues. The latest Google Mobility data to 6th Dec shows a steady improvement across all States in recent weeks as SA came out of its short lock-down and most State borders opened. WA and QLD lead the recovery with total activity down …read more

Youth in Greater Melbourne have been especially badly hit by the lock-down

The ABS regional labour force data released last week (when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend) allows us to see the significant impact that the Victoria, and particularly the Melbourne, lock-down have had on the youth cohort. Since March total employment in Victoria has fallen 218,800 (or 6.4%). …read more

Google Community Mobility data shows the country recovering as Victoria emerges from its lockdown

With restrictions slowly being relaxed in Victoria the latest Google Community Mobility data (to Oct 16th) shows that economic life across the nation continues to, slowly, improve. Using our Economic Activity Index (the 7-day moving average of the Google Community Indexes without the Parks and Residential measures) we see activity …read more

The effect of Melbourne’s lockdown on employment

As Melbourne’s lockdown starts to ease the August regional employment data released on Thursday (when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend) clearly shows us the impact the restrictions have had when compared to the Rest of Victoria. Trend employment in Greater Melbourne has fallen 163,000 since March, or …read more

Google data suggests things have started to improve again

After a period of stagnation in the Google Community Mobility data over recent weeks on the back of the Melbourne lock-down we are starting to see some evidence of activity picking up again. The most recent data to 28th August shows Victoria coming off recent lows and all other states …read more

Weekly Payrolls Data shows QLD +0.9% m/m while VIC is down 1.5% m/m

The divergence between those states enjoying a better health outcomes and those not has become clearer with the release this morning of the ABS Weekly Payrolls data to July 25th (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system). While payrolls fell 0.1% m/m across Australia, QLD saw a 0.9% increase. …read more

Updated Google Mobility data

Last week we posted using the Google Mobility Data (Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports”. www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 10/8/20)¬†as a proxy for economic activity (see here for the full details). Google’s data has now been updated to 4th August so we have updated our two measures (‘Activity’ and ‘Economic Activity’). …read more

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