Regional Labour Force data needs some serious care

{This post is an edited version of a previously published one that contained some data errors…our apologies for any confusion} As we noted when the ABS released their April Labour Force data at National and State level (see here) they chose to temporarily cease the production of their Trend series. …read more

Solar Citizens webinar recording

I spoke about regional employment in Central and North Queensland on a webinar organised by Solar Citizens yesterday. I was joined by Solar Citizens National Director, Ellen Roberts and David Leitch from energy specialist consultancy ITK who spoke about the opportunities in the solar and wind space for Central and …read more

Huge drop in Participation throws unemployment rate forecasts out the window

The release of the April Labour Force survey today was always expected to throw up some surprises. This is the first monthly data set that reveals the true extent of the COVID-19 impacts on the labour market. Market expectations around the level of employment losses had been remarkably similar (given …read more

March arrivals data looks horrible…and it’s only likely to get worse

The March Arrivals and Departures data from the ABS this morning, while looking horrible, is likely to be eclipsed by even more disturbing numbers in the future. March saw a decline of 59.9% in short term international arrivals from the same month a year ago Over the course of the …read more

Regional building approvals data for March

Last week the ABS released the March building approvals data which showed approvals across the nation grew (in Trend terms) by 1.0% for the year while in Queensland they continued to decline, down 7.8% (see details here). Today we got the original ABS regional data which allows us to update …read more

Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more

Building Approvals fall less than expected; QLD units continue to tumble

After the Victorian unit led surge in approvals in February (see here for details) the market was prepared for a substantial decline in the March data. The result was rather better than expected with just a 4.0% m/m decline (seasonally adjusted). The less volatile Trend series moved back into positive …read more

A model in a time of ‘radical uncertainty’

I spent part of this morning listening to Prof John Kay, author of Radical Uncertainty: Decision making for an unknowable future, talking to my friend Gene Tunny on his Economics Explained podcast. It’s a fascinating chat about a highly topical subject (although the book was written prior to the COVID-19 …read more

Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

March labour force data shows the North was in a strong position prior to the COVID-19 impacts

The ABS released their original, unadjusted regional labour force data this morning which allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for the QLD SA4 regions. While last week we saw the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland decline to 5.7% (see here for details) today’s data …read more

© Conus Business Consultancy Services 2020

Website created by RJ New Designs