Payrolls data suggests things are better in early 2021 than 2020…but beware obvious conclusions!

Data out this week from the ABS for Payrolls suggests that the labour market was actually stronger¬† in early January this year than it was at the same time last. With a year’s worth of data we can now, for the first time, make year-on-year comparisons of this series. The …read more

Hopefully not too long until ABS reintroduce their employment Trend series

Back in April 2020, as the impacts of the COVID lock-downs took hold across Australia and the labour force data went into free-fall the ABS suspended their Trend series within the Labour Force Survey (and many other data releases). The reason for this was justified by the fact that the …read more

Excellent employment numbers in Nov…although QLD disappoints

Once again the Labour Force data has surprised on the upside in November. While consensus expectations were around an increase in employment of 40,000 (our own projection was somewhat higher at 66,000…see here for details) the official figure showed a jump of 90,000 (almost all of which were in full-time …read more

Weekly Payrolls continue to improve but there are some concerns for Small Business (and Townsville)

The ABS weekly payrolls data (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system) updated its latest series yesterday and today. What we see is a clear national improvement being driven largely by the recovery in Victoria as the state continues to come out of lock-down. Victoria registered a 1.4% improvement …read more

Border openings showing in the Google Mobility data

The long grind back to something approaching ‘normal’ continues. The latest Google Mobility data to 6th Dec shows a steady improvement across all States in recent weeks as SA came out of its short lock-down and most State borders opened. WA and QLD lead the recovery with total activity down …read more

Switch to JobKeeper 2.0 hits small business hard

At the end of Sept the JobKeeper stimulus, which had been in place since April, converted to a more stringent set of qualification requirements (as well as decreases to the amounts paid) for the period to the end of Dec at which time there will be another (and probably final) …read more

Youth in Greater Melbourne have been especially badly hit by the lock-down

The ABS regional labour force data released last week (when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend) allows us to see the significant impact that the Victoria, and particularly the Melbourne, lock-down have had on the youth cohort. Since March total employment in Victoria has fallen 218,800 (or 6.4%). …read more

Google Community Mobility data shows the country recovering as Victoria emerges from its lockdown

With restrictions slowly being relaxed in Victoria the latest Google Community Mobility data (to Oct 16th) shows that economic life across the nation continues to, slowly, improve. Using our Economic Activity Index (the 7-day moving average of the Google Community Indexes without the Parks and Residential measures) we see activity …read more

Pretty good jobs numbers for QLD; despite the headline unemployment rate moving higher again

Once again in Sept the ABS Labour Force data provides a complex and rather confusing picture. Across the nation employment fell slightly (down 29,500) which was somewhat better than had been expected. Despite a very small decline in the participation rate this saw the headline unemployment rate nudge back up …read more

It’s small business that’s taking the jobs hit

The weekly payrolls data from the ABS up to 19th Sept shows that it’s small businesses (fewer than 20 employees) which are suffering the highest job losses; a situation only likely to have been further exacerbated as the JobKeeper stimulus began to wind-back from the end of Sept. While total …read more

© Conus Business Consultancy Services 2021

Website created by RJ New Designs