Google mobility data as a proxy for economic activity

Google have been providing data on their “Community Mobility Indexes” for some timeĀ  to help track the impacts of COVID-19 (you can get further details here). The indexes measure movement in six categories; Grocery & pharmacy Mobility trends for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, …read more

Melbourne lock-down means changes to JobKeeper even more restrictive; extra 260,000 may lose needed support

The lock-down now in place in Melbourne could see an additional 260,000 workers miss out on JobKeeper (JK) support due to the 2-quarters requirements of the new regime. On our pre-lock-down estimates we would have seen the JK 1.0 original 3.5 million figure drop to 2.0 million in Oct had …read more

Updating our model with the new JobKeeper 2.0 impacts

Last week the Govt confirmed the details of the JobKeeper extension (JK 2.0) which will be in place when the original JobKeeper (JK 1.0) expires at the end of Sept. Details are available at the Treasury website. Essentially for a business to be eligible for JK 2.0, from October to …read more

Regional labour force shows improvement in June

In common with the national and State data seen last week (see here for details) the regional data for June shows an improvement across many regions. The Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend shows a similar story panning out across both Greater Brisbane and the Rest of QLD. In Greater Brisbane Trend …read more

Labour Force data…something for everyone

Today’s June Labour Force data has provided something for everyone…and a big surprise for most. Expectations had been for employment to improve by about 100K in June with the unemployment rate either going up slightly, staying stable, or moving down slightly depending upon what you thought participation was going to …read more

Cairns jobs are recovering….but still well below national average

Payrolls data from the ABS (sourced weekly from the ATO’s Single Touch Payroll system) shows that payrolls across the nation were down 5.7% by the 27th June from their levels in mid-March. Across Queensland the decline was slightly better at 5.2%. Data at the regional level at this stage is …read more

March tourism data shows the scale of the COVID-19 impact in the Far North

Tourism Research Australia have released their International and National Visitor Surveys for the year to March 2020 today (see here). This is the first of the quarterly data that will start to exhibit some of the COVID-19 related impacts. The pandemic began to affect travel from China early in 2020, …read more

Another big drop in employment and another decline in participation.

Despite some encouraging Payrolls data from the ABS and ATO for May from earlier this week (about which we advised a good deal of caution..see here) today’s Labour Force data for May shows another substantial decline in the number employed and, perhaps surprisingly, another drop in participation. Note; The ABS …read more

Participation changes across Queensland

There has been a lot written about the fact that the Participation Rates across Australia fell sharply as the effects of the COVID-19 lock-down took effect. These falls at national, state and regional level had the effect of suppressing the anticipated rises in the unemployment rates. Participation rates, prior to …read more

Updated model projections and what would happen if JobKeeper was extended

Much has happened since we last updated our model projections. We’ve had the ABS regional labour force data (see here for commentary and the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trends) which showed large declines in participation across the nation, state and regions; the ABS produced their Payroll data up to the week …read more

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