Cairns Google Mobility data suggests a strong start to Easter

The Google Mobility data allows us to see how various regions have been performing based on how much people have been moving around (with their mobile phones). The latest data up to 2nd April shows that Cairns has been doing particularly well and the 2-and-a-half day Brisbane lock-down appears to …read more

The end of JobKeeper could see Cairns unemployment rate lift as high as 8.5%

Due to a written response by Treasury to the Senate COVID committee (available here) I’ve been able to update and rethink my estimates of JobKeeper in Cairns (SA4) and what might happen come March when the scheme is due to end. Treasury told the committee that JobKeeper recipients for the …read more

‘Effective’ unemployment rate explains the apparent QLD paradox

We have been highlighting for some time the fact that the Queensland labour market has benefitted from the positive health outcomes in the State (see here for the most recent December data) with both employment and hours worked per capita up since March. Back in November we discussed one of the reasons …read more

Payrolls data suggests things are better in early 2021 than 2020…but beware obvious conclusions!

Data out this week from the ABS for Payrolls suggests that the labour market was actually stronger  in early January this year than it was at the same time last. With a year’s worth of data we can now, for the first time, make year-on-year comparisons of this series. The …read more

Hopefully not too long until ABS reintroduce their employment Trend series

Back in April 2020, as the impacts of the COVID lock-downs took hold across Australia and the labour force data went into free-fall the ABS suspended their Trend series within the Labour Force Survey (and many other data releases). The reason for this was justified by the fact that the …read more

Excellent employment numbers in Nov…although QLD disappoints

Once again the Labour Force data has surprised on the upside in November. While consensus expectations were around an increase in employment of 40,000 (our own projection was somewhat higher at 66,000…see here for details) the official figure showed a jump of 90,000 (almost all of which were in full-time …read more

Weekly Payrolls continue to improve but there are some concerns for Small Business (and Townsville)

The ABS weekly payrolls data (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system) updated its latest series yesterday and today. What we see is a clear national improvement being driven largely by the recovery in Victoria as the state continues to come out of lock-down. Victoria registered a 1.4% improvement …read more

Border openings showing in the Google Mobility data

The long grind back to something approaching ‘normal’ continues. The latest Google Mobility data to 6th Dec shows a steady improvement across all States in recent weeks as SA came out of its short lock-down and most State borders opened. WA and QLD lead the recovery with total activity down …read more

Switch to JobKeeper 2.0 hits small business hard

At the end of Sept the JobKeeper stimulus, which had been in place since April, converted to a more stringent set of qualification requirements (as well as decreases to the amounts paid) for the period to the end of Dec at which time there will be another (and probably final) …read more

Youth in Greater Melbourne have been especially badly hit by the lock-down

The ABS regional labour force data released last week (when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend) allows us to see the significant impact that the Victoria, and particularly the Melbourne, lock-down have had on the youth cohort. Since March total employment in Victoria has fallen 218,800 (or 6.4%). …read more

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