National Google Mobility slumps to lowest in 14 months. QLD leads the pack

The lockdowns in Greater Sydney, Victoria and South Australia have seen Google Mobility averages across Australia decline (for the 7-day average to 25th July) to their lowest level since 11th May last year. Queensland, where the most recent lockdown was short and sharp in late-June/early-July, now sits with the best …read more

Cairns powers ahead; Google Mobility data

In the face of lock-downs across the country earlier in the month (which continue in Sydney) Google Mobility data confirms that Cairns managed to escape relatively unscathed and, as a result, has opened up a significant gap with many other regions. There did appear to be a short-lived, and small …read more

Google Mobility and Airport data suggests Cairns performing strongly after Easter

The latest Google Mobility data (to 9th May) suggests that Cairns, in particular, has performed very strongly after the slow-down caused by ANZAC Day, Easter and a very wet period of weather a couple of weeks ago. The 7-day average mobility indicator for Cairns now sits at just 0.2% (and …read more

Reading much into Payrolls data confused by seasonal effects

The release by the ABS of the weekly Payrolls data up to 24th April might have been expected to provide some evidence of the impact of the end of JobKeeper. However, the fact that this data set is not seasonally adjusted, combined with the impact of the Easter holidays, means …read more

Cairns Google Mobility data suggests a strong start to Easter

The Google Mobility data allows us to see how various regions have been performing based on how much people have been moving around (with their mobile phones). The latest data up to 2nd April shows that Cairns has been doing particularly well and the 2-and-a-half day Brisbane lock-down appears to …read more

The end of JobKeeper could see Cairns unemployment rate lift as high as 8.5%

Due to a written response by Treasury to the Senate COVID committee (available here) I’ve been able to update and rethink my estimates of JobKeeper in Cairns (SA4) and what might happen come March when the scheme is due to end. Treasury told the committee that JobKeeper recipients for the …read more

‘Effective’ unemployment rate explains the apparent QLD paradox

We have been highlighting for some time the fact that the Queensland labour market has benefitted from the positive health outcomes in the State (see here for the most recent December data) with both employment and hours worked per capita up since March. Back in November we discussed one of the reasons …read more

Payrolls data suggests things are better in early 2021 than 2020…but beware obvious conclusions!

Data out this week from the ABS for Payrolls suggests that the labour market was actually stronger  in early January this year than it was at the same time last. With a year’s worth of data we can now, for the first time, make year-on-year comparisons of this series. The …read more

Hopefully not too long until ABS reintroduce their employment Trend series

Back in April 2020, as the impacts of the COVID lock-downs took hold across Australia and the labour force data went into free-fall the ABS suspended their Trend series within the Labour Force Survey (and many other data releases). The reason for this was justified by the fact that the …read more

Excellent employment numbers in Nov…although QLD disappoints

Once again the Labour Force data has surprised on the upside in November. While consensus expectations were around an increase in employment of 40,000 (our own projection was somewhat higher at 66,000…see here for details) the official figure showed a jump of 90,000 (almost all of which were in full-time …read more

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