Regional data for May shows Greater Brisbane being hit slightly harder than the Rest of Queensland

The release today of the ABS original labour force data at the regional level allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series (please see the note at the start of a previous post regarding Trend data at a time of such high volatility). While employment has …read more

JobSeeker data for May shows another 22% increase. Over 1.6 million people claiming.

The Dept of Social Services today released the latest JobSeeker data for May. It shows the total of those claiming JobSeeker and Youth Allowance (other) has increased by another 21.8% since April with now 1,635,286 people claiming the benefits. This is up from 442,500 claiming the old Newstart and Youth …read more

Another big drop in employment and another decline in participation.

Despite some encouraging Payrolls data from the ABS and ATO for May from earlier this week (about which we advised a good deal of caution..see here) today’s Labour Force data for May shows another substantial decline in the number employed and, perhaps surprisingly, another drop in participation. Note; The ABS …read more

Labour Account; hours worked fall, incomes growth slows. Regions do worse (again)

Today’s release of the March 2020 quarter Labour Account data series provides a wealth of information. One thing it allows us to do is take a  look at incomes across various industry sectors and how they have changed in the past 12 months. The data provides us, for each industry …read more

Participation changes across Queensland

There has been a lot written about the fact that the Participation Rates across Australia fell sharply as the effects of the COVID-19 lock-down took effect. These falls at national, state and regional level had the effect of suppressing the anticipated rises in the unemployment rates. Participation rates, prior to …read more

Updated model projections and what would happen if JobKeeper was extended

Much has happened since we last updated our model projections. We’ve had the ABS regional labour force data (see here for commentary and the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trends) which showed large declines in participation across the nation, state and regions; the ABS produced their Payroll data up to the week …read more

Solar Citizens webinar recording

I spoke about regional employment in Central and North Queensland on a webinar organised by Solar Citizens yesterday. I was joined by Solar Citizens National Director, Ellen Roberts and David Leitch from energy specialist consultancy ITK who spoke about the opportunities in the solar and wind space for Central and …read more

Huge drop in Participation throws unemployment rate forecasts out the window

The release of the April Labour Force survey today was always expected to throw up some surprises. This is the first monthly data set that reveals the true extent of the COVID-19 impacts on the labour market. Market expectations around the level of employment losses had been remarkably similar (given …read more

Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more

Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

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