Reading much into Payrolls data confused by seasonal effects

The release by the ABS of the weekly Payrolls data up to 24th April might have been expected to provide some evidence of the impact of the end of JobKeeper. However, the fact that this data set is not seasonally adjusted, combined with the impact of the Easter holidays, means …read more

Cairns improves in March before removal of JobKeeper

The ABS original regional data for March released this morning allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection series. This shows employment growth at a slightly higher level in Greater Brisbane (+4.7% Trend and +2.8% s.a.) than in the Rest of QLD (+4.0% Trend and +2.1% s.a.) with 108,600 new …read more

What’s driving changes in Participation in QLD’s regions?

Much has been written about movements in the Participation Rate (PR) and the impact this has on unemployment rates; if participation increases then any decline in the unemployment rate is harder to achieve with more people entering the labour force (and vice versa). The discussion is certainly a valid one, …read more

Once again Labour Force data smashes expectations. Unemployment rate falls to 5.6%

We really should be used to it by now! The March Labour Force Survey data has once again beaten market expectations by a long way; employment was up 70,700 in March (the market had been expecting half of that) with the unemployment rate falling to 5.6% (expectations had been for …read more

It’s the Private, not Public, Sector driving Queensland’s better labour market performance

As we noted last week (see here), Queensland’s labour market has been performing relatively well during recent months with total employed up 1.3% in February from a year earlier (while nationwide that figure is unchanged). Inevitably, with the Queensland Government’s own Public Service employment data (data only up to Sept 2020) …read more

Stunning Feb labour force data shows Australia virtually back to pre-COVID levels

The February labour force data from the ABS shows a stunning surge in employment which has taken the number in work back to virtually the same level as a year ago, pre-COVID (actually -0.01% y/y). Employment jumped a thumping 88,700 (with full-time employment up 89,100) and while participation remained unchanged …read more

Cairns unemployment rate falls again but things are not all rosy

Once again we see a drop in the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend unemployment rate with the January data showing 5.4%. However, before we get too excited about what appears to be very positive news we should note that the reason for the fall is not improving employment but rather a …read more

The end of JobKeeper could see Cairns unemployment rate lift as high as 8.5%

Due to a written response by Treasury to the Senate COVID committee (available here) I’ve been able to update and rethink my estimates of JobKeeper in Cairns (SA4) and what might happen come March when the scheme is due to end. Treasury told the committee that JobKeeper recipients for the …read more

‘Effective’ unemployment rate explains the apparent QLD paradox

We have been highlighting for some time the fact that the Queensland labour market has benefitted from the positive health outcomes in the State (see here for the most recent December data) with both employment and hours worked per capita up since March. Back in November we discussed one of the reasons …read more

The regions which have been doing best, and worst through 2020

We have recently expanded the coverage of our Conus and Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data series to include WA and now have regional data for NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA. So, with the release of the Dec 2020 data recently, it seemed appropriate to take a look at …read more

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