Cairns unemployment rate falls again but things are not all rosy

Once again we see a drop in the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend unemployment rate with the January data showing 5.4%. However, before we get too excited about what appears to be very positive news we should note that the reason for the fall is not improving employment but rather a …read more

The end of JobKeeper could see Cairns unemployment rate lift as high as 8.5%

Due to a written response by Treasury to the Senate COVID committee (available here) I’ve been able to update and rethink my estimates of JobKeeper in Cairns (SA4) and what might happen come March when the scheme is due to end. Treasury told the committee that JobKeeper recipients for the …read more

‘Effective’ unemployment rate explains the apparent QLD paradox

We have been highlighting for some time the fact that the Queensland labour market has benefitted from the positive health outcomes in the State (see here for the most recent December data) with both employment and hours worked per capita up since March. Back in November we discussed one of the reasons …read more

The regions which have been doing best, and worst through 2020

We have recently expanded the coverage of our Conus and Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data series to include WA and now have regional data for NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA. So, with the release of the Dec 2020 data recently, it seemed appropriate to take a look at …read more

The Gold Coast and Toowoomba lead the employment recovery in QLD. Cairns unemployment rate falls to 5.7%

The release of original regional employment data for December by the ABS allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series. While employment across Queensland has lifted 27,250 during 2020 this latest analysis shows that the bulk of those gains have come from regional Queensland (Rest of QLD added …read more

It’s not the Public Sector that’s behind Queensland’s relatively good labour market performance

As we noted last week (see here), Queensland’s labour market has been performing relatively well during recent months with total employed up 1.1% in December from a year earlier (while nationwide that figure is a decline of 0.5%). Inevitably, with the Queensland Government’s own Public Service employment data (data only …read more

Labour Force data comes in largely as expected…Queensland does well

The ABS December Labour Force data released today is broadly in line with market expectations, which in themselves were quite bullish. Employment lifted by another 50,000 from November and is now down just 0.5% from a year ago. The unemployment rate has again fallen to 6.6% even while the participation …read more

Payrolls data suggests things are better in early 2021 than 2020…but beware obvious conclusions!

Data out this week from the ABS for Payrolls suggests that the labour market was actually stronger  in early January this year than it was at the same time last. With a year’s worth of data we can now, for the first time, make year-on-year comparisons of this series. The …read more

Hopefully not too long until ABS reintroduce their employment Trend series

Back in April 2020, as the impacts of the COVID lock-downs took hold across Australia and the labour force data went into free-fall the ABS suspended their Trend series within the Labour Force Survey (and many other data releases). The reason for this was justified by the fact that the …read more

Excellent employment numbers in Nov…although QLD disappoints

Once again the Labour Force data has surprised on the upside in November. While consensus expectations were around an increase in employment of 40,000 (our own projection was somewhat higher at 66,000…see here for details) the official figure showed a jump of 90,000 (almost all of which were in full-time …read more

© Conus Business Consultancy Services 2021

Website created by RJ New Designs