Regional data for May shows Greater Brisbane being hit slightly harder than the Rest of Queensland

The release today of the ABS original labour force data at the regional level allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series (please see the note at the start of a previous post regarding Trend data at a time of such high volatility). While employment has …read more

Regional Building Approvals for April

The release of the ABS original regional building approvals data allows us to update our Conus Trend series for April. Lats week we saw nationwide Trend approvals up 3.9% for the year while Queensland registered a 6.4% decline. Today’s data allows us to see that Greater Brisbane approvals fell 8.7% …read more

Labour Account; hours worked fall, incomes growth slows. Regions do worse (again)

Today’s release of the March 2020 quarter Labour Account data series provides a wealth of information. One thing it allows us to do is take a  look at incomes across various industry sectors and how they have changed in the past 12 months. The data provides us, for each industry …read more

Participation changes across Queensland

There has been a lot written about the fact that the Participation Rates across Australia fell sharply as the effects of the COVID-19 lock-down took effect. These falls at national, state and regional level had the effect of suppressing the anticipated rises in the unemployment rates. Participation rates, prior to …read more

Solar Citizens webinar recording

I spoke about regional employment in Central and North Queensland on a webinar organised by Solar Citizens yesterday. I was joined by Solar Citizens National Director, Ellen Roberts and David Leitch from energy specialist consultancy ITK who spoke about the opportunities in the solar and wind space for Central and …read more

Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more

A model in a time of ‘radical uncertainty’

I spent part of this morning listening to Prof John Kay, author of Radical Uncertainty: Decision making for an unknowable future, talking to my friend Gene Tunny on his Economics Explained podcast. It’s a fascinating chat about a highly topical subject (although the book was written prior to the COVID-19 …read more

Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

March labour force data shows the North was in a strong position prior to the COVID-19 impacts

The ABS released their original, unadjusted regional labour force data this morning which allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for the QLD SA4 regions. While last week we saw the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland decline to 5.7% (see here for details) today’s data …read more

Updating and expanding our model forecasts; Cairns unemployment to peak close to 14%

Yesterday saw the ABS release the first of their weekly releases looking at payroll and wages data. This new data set, well in advance of the full April Labour Force survey, gives us a first opportunity (albeit with some caveats and reservations) to see the impact of the COVID-19 inspired …read more

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