Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

SALM data gives us a look at the finer grain local detail

The release by the Dept of Employment of their Small Area Labour Market (SALM) data for the September 2019 quarter, when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend SALM series, gives us our only genuine look at the detail of the labour market at the finer grain level of …read more

Major post holiday chart-dump. Employment, Tourism and Regional Building Approvals

We’ve been away for a couple of weeks and, while enjoying the delights of the Canberra Centenary Trail (and Canberra in general), quite a bit of data has landed. So, without wishing to rake over old coals and repeat commentary that you’ve no doubt already seen, I thought it worth …read more

Small Area Labour Market data points to Port Douglas and Tully as regional star performers

The Dept of Employment today released their Small Area Labour Market data for the March quarter. The headline data is presented as a smoothed 4 quarters average at both Local Govt Area and SA2 level. However, hidden in the release is the original, unsmoothed, data and from that we create the Conus Trend …read more

Small Area Labour Market data for the North

The Dept of Employment have released their Small Area Labour Market data for the December quarter. The headline data is presented as a smoothed 4 quarters average at both Local Govt Area and SA2 level. However, hidden in the release is the original, unsmoothed, data and from that we create the Conus Trend …read more

Cairns projected growth

The Queensland Government projections of future population growth are an important indicator as they will be used to determine infrastructure planning into the future. The most recent version shows projections out to 2041 at both SA4 and LGA level; and this is what they tell us about the Government’s projections …read more

Regional Building Approvals shows Rest of Queensland nudging higher as Greater Brisbane drops away

The release by the ABS of the original regional building approvals data for August allows us to update our Conus Trend series for regional Queensland. In a month in which Queensland Trend approvals were unchanged (see here for last week’s commentary) we see a slightly different picture emerging between Greater …read more

Conus Trend SALM data for local Councils

The Dept of Employment today released their Small Area Labour Market data for the June quarter. The headline data is presented as a smoothed 4 quarters average at both Local Govt Area and SA2 level. However, hidden in the release is the original, unsmoothed, data and from that we create …read more

Updated regional population data. Cairns thumping Townsville

The ABS today revised their regional population data for 2016 and 2017, so we wanted to update our post from April (see original here) to reflect the revised data. At the SA4 level Cairns increased from 2016 to 2017 by 3,061 people (or 1.2%). We can dig deeper into the …read more

Regional Building Approvals spike in Cairns as units come online

The release by the ABS of the April regional building approvals data is best seen through the lens of the Conus Trend. In April we saw the ABS Trend for residential approvals in Queensland up by 5.6% for the year (see here for details). When we consider the Conus Trend …read more

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