National Visitor Survey results…handle with care

The results from the March 2019 National Visitor Survey have finally been released by Tourism Research Australia (available here). They come with a warning; the methodology has been changed significantly. As the TRA website explains, NVS sampling mehtodology has transitioned “to 100% mobile phone interviews (from 50% mobile phone/50% landline) …read more

Chinese arrivals in sharp spike up

A sudden and dramatic spike upwards in the number of Chinese arrivals to Australia in May is a surprising, but pleasing result, from the ABS Short Term Arrivals and Departures data today. The seasonally adjusted data showed Chinese arrivals up 7.0% y/y, although the rather less volatile Trend data pared …read more

Regional building approvals suggest a bottom may have been seen in Brisbane and the Regions

The release by the ABS of the May regional building approvals data allows us to update our own Conus Trend series. Last week we noted that there was some suggestion of a bottoming-out of the weaker Trend in Queensland (see here for details) although the Trend is still showing a …read more

Has the Building Approvals decline run its course in Queensland?

The May Building Approvals data from the ABS this morning suggests that we might have seen the bottom of the downturn in Queensland…although 2 months hardly a summer makes! Across Australia approvals were up 0.7% m/m (s.a.), or a 10.0% decline for the year. However, given the highly volatile nature …read more

Jobseeker Trend data leaves no doubt as to strength of Cairns labour market

The Dept of Social Services Jobseekers data for April and May has been released which allows us to estimate our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series from the original, unadjusted data. What it shows us is further falls in the number of people claiming either Newstart or Youth Allowance in the North. Our Conus/CBC …read more

Participation Rates; age and sex impacts across Queensland

Some months ago we considered the impacts of changes in age and sex demographics within the labour force and the impact this was having on Participation Rates across Queensland. You can read the original post here which outlines the methodology used to split out the Propensity and Demographic Impacts within …read more

Trend employment growth powers on in Cairns

The release by th ABS of their original labour force data for May 2019 allows us to update our own Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend, and it shows us Trend employment growth in Cairns continuing to power ahead with the State’s fastest employment grwoth for the year (+20.0%). For …read more

International Visitor Survey shows TNQ continues to underperform

The release this morning by Tourism Research Australia of the March 2019 International Visitor Survey (see here for full details) once again shows the TNQ region underperforming as the tourism boom across the nation continues apace, International visitor numbers to Australia grew by 2.7% for the year to March 2019 …read more

Small Area Labour Market data points to Port Douglas and Tully as regional star performers

The Dept of Employment today released their Small Area Labour Market data for the March quarter. The headline data is presented as a smoothed 4 quarters average at both Local Govt Area and SA2 level. However, hidden in the release is the original, unsmoothed, data and from that we create the Conus Trend …read more

Strong jobs growth matched with record high participation = stubborn unemployment rate

The labour force data for May shows employment continuing to grow quite strongly but a move to a record high Particiaption Rate keeps the unemployment rate stubbornly unchanged. Employment lifted by 42,300 (seasonally adjusted) or 28,400 (Trend) in May; both after significant upwrad revisons to April’s numbers. However, with the …read more

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