Chinese visitor numbers decline weighs on total arrivals

Short term arrivals into Australia were up just 0.4% y/y (seasonally adjusted) in April as Chinese visitors numbers continue to slide. Trend Chinese arrivals were at their lowest monthly level in two years and were down 6.1% y/y. The decline in Chinese visitors measn that NZ takes back the crown …read more

Labour Account highlights the weakness in regional incomes across Queensland

Today’s release of the March 2019 Labour Account data series provides a wealth of information. One thing it allows us to do is take a  look at incomes across various industry sectors and how they have changed in the past 12 months. The table below shows, for selected industries, the year-on-year changes …read more

Running a ruler over the ‘Budget Battle’

Tomorrow we will see the Queensland ALP Government release their 2019-20 Budget and ahead of that the Courier Mail today has published a ‘Budget Battle’ piece with competing statements from Treasurer Jackie Trad and former LNP Treasurer Tim Nicholls (why we aren’t hearing from the current LNP Shadow Treasurer Tim …read more

More signs of a bottoming-out in regional Building Approvals Trend

Last week, when the ABS Building Approvals Trend for April was released, we noted that there appeared to be early signs of a possible bottoming-out after a period of sharp falls. Today the release of the Conus Regioanl Building Approvals Trend data (derived from the ABS original data released yesterday) …read more

GDP slows again in Q1. Queensland relying on the Public Sector

The first quarter GDP data released this morning was broadly in line with expectations as household consumption growth remained weak. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.4% q/q for a year-on-year increase of just 1.8% (down from 2.4% in the previous quarter). The annual rate of growth now sits at 2.5%. Contributions …read more

QLD Q4 Gross State Product shows growth slowing sharply…yet no one seemed to notice

While we were away the release by Queensland Treasury of the State Accounts for the fourth quarter of 2018 appeared, with apparently little fanfare or coverage (we can find no mention from any news source or from Queensland Treasury). While the ABS produce Gross State Product (GSP) data only on an annual …read more

Building Approvals disappoint again, but are there signs of hope for QLD?

The ABS release of April Building Aprovals data has disappointed the markets again coming in below expectations. Seasonally adjusted approvals were down 4.7% m/m for a year-on-year decline of 24.2%. The less volatile (and perfered) Trend measure showed a 0.6% m/m drop and a fall of 21.8% y/y. House approvals …read more

Shifting Participation Rates in Queensland regions

Some months ago we considered the impacts of changes in age and sex demographics within the labour force and the impact this was having on Participation Rates across Queensland. You can read the original post here which outlines the methodology used to split out the Propensity and Demographic Impacts within …read more

Regional employment data shows Trends in Cairns very strong (again)

The ABS original regional labour force data for April allows us to update our own Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series. With the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland dropping slightly in April to 5.9% (from 6.0%) we might have expected some modest imprivements in our regional data. The Trend unemployment rate …read more

Labour Force data is a bet each way for the RBA’s response

Following the RBA’s acknowledgement earlier this month that they would be careful watching employment data in coming months before making a determination about any future rate cut, today’s release of April’s data will have done little to clarify matters one way or the other. On the downside the headline (seasonally …read more

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