A sudden and dramatic spike upwards in the number of Chinese arrivals to Australia in May is a surprising, but pleasing result, from the ABS Short Term Arrivals and Departures data today.
The seasonally adjusted data showed Chinese arrivals up 7.0% y/y, although the rather less volatile Trend data pared that back to a 1.2% y/y decline (the third consecutive month of year-on-year declines). As the chart below makes clear, this month’s data is something of a spike.
Nevertheless total arrivals were up 7.6% y/y (seasonally adjusted) and 2.9% y/y (Trend) – the fastest pace of growth in six months.
The State of Intended Stay data, provide by the ABS only as an original set and Trended by us to create the Conus Trend, showed Trend arrivals into QLD were up 1.7% y/y, NSW up 1.5% y/y and Victoria up 6.1% y/y. On an annual basis Trend arrivals into Australia rose 3.4% with QLD matching that at 3.4%, NSW underperforming with an increase of just 1.1% and Victoria up 8.5%.
We are still waiting for the release of the March quarter National Visitor Survey from Tourism Research Australia (which was scheduled for release 10 days ago) to provide us with insight into the domestic side of the tourism picture.