Updated model projections and what would happen if JobKeeper was extended

Much has happened since we last updated our model projections. We’ve had the ABS regional labour force data (see here for commentary and the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trends) which showed large declines in participation across the nation, state and regions; the ABS produced their Payroll data up to the week …read more

March arrivals data looks horrible…and it’s only likely to get worse

The March Arrivals and Departures data from the ABS this morning, while looking horrible, is likely to be eclipsed by even more disturbing numbers in the future. March saw a decline of 59.9% in short term international arrivals from the same month a year ago Over the course of the …read more

Tourism data for Feb falls off a cliff

We’ve all known it was coming, but that doesn’t make the short term arrivals data for Feb from the ABS today any less shocking. Short term arrivals into Australia fell 18.7% y/y in Feb; a month in which the full COVID-19 impact was yet to be felt. China obviously felt …read more

International & National Visitor Surveys provide no joy for TNQ

Tourism Research Australia have released their International and National Visitor Surveys for the year to Dec 2019 today (see here). This will be the last tourism data set we see before the impacts of COVID-19 and the travel bans start to show up in the March quarter. Australia saw international …read more

We all know this was coming….a first look at COVID-19 travel numbers

The ABS release of the short-term arrivals data for January gives us what we all knew was coming; our first look at tourism data in the COVID-19 era. Of course this data relates to the period prior to the Chinese travel ban coming into force (which started on Feb 1st). …read more

Arrivals & Departures data confirms slowing Chinese numbers…even before coronavirus

The release of the Short Term Arrivals and Departures data by the ABS for December confimrs the fact that the number of arrivals from China was already in decline well before the imapct of the coronavirus was felt. While total Trend short term arrivals were up 2.6% y/y (to 801,800) …read more

How bad will the Chinese travel ban be for Cairns and TNQ?

As the government stops all Chinese visitors from entering the country in response to the coronavirus outbreak, economists are scrambling to try and work out the likely impact on the Australian economy from the hit to tourism and student expenditure. It’s clearly something of a guessing game but, as reported …read more

TNQ’s falling market share getting some much needed attention

As regular readers will be aware, we have been highlighting TNQ’s declining share of the tourism market for many years so it’s encouraging to see the issue (finally) being addressed head-on by the region’s main tourism marketing arm, TTNQ. Over the past seven years TNQ’s share of Australia’s total tourism …read more

Domestic tourism provides solid boost to the Far North

The release this morning by Tourism Research Australia of the National and International Visitor Surveys for the Sept 2019 quarter (available here) will have provided some light relief for the tourism industry in our region; although the good news was restricted to the domestic sector. Across Australia total domestic visitor …read more

Slowing Chinese visitor growth sees short term visitor expansion at 7-year low

The ABS release of short term visitor data today for Nov 2019 shows that, as the number of visitors from China slows (or goes into decline) we are seeing total short term visitors numbers over the past 12 months slow to a rate not seen sice August 2012. Seasonally adjusted …read more

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