Running a ruler over the ‘Budget Battle’

Tomorrow we will see the Queensland ALP Government release their 2019-20 Budget and ahead of that the Courier Mail today has published a ‘Budget Battle’ piece with competing statements from Treasurer Jackie Trad and former LNP Treasurer Tim Nicholls (why we aren’t hearing from the current LNP Shadow Treasurer Tim …read more

More signs of a bottoming-out in regional Building Approvals Trend

Last week, when the ABS Building Approvals Trend for April was released, we noted that there appeared to be early signs of a possible bottoming-out after a period of sharp falls. Today the release of the Conus Regioanl Building Approvals Trend data (derived from the ABS original data released yesterday) …read more

GDP slows again in Q1. Queensland relying on the Public Sector

The first quarter GDP data released this morning was broadly in line with expectations as household consumption growth remained weak. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.4% q/q for a year-on-year increase of just 1.8% (down from 2.4% in the previous quarter). The annual rate of growth now sits at 2.5%. Contributions …read more

QLD Q4 Gross State Product shows growth slowing sharply…yet no one seemed to notice

While we were away the release by Queensland Treasury of the State Accounts for the fourth quarter of 2018 appeared, with apparently little fanfare or coverage (we can find no mention from any news source or from Queensland Treasury). While the ABS produce Gross State Product (GSP) data only on an annual …read more

Building Approvals disappoint again, but are there signs of hope for QLD?

The ABS release of April Building Aprovals data has disappointed the markets again coming in below expectations. Seasonally adjusted approvals were down 4.7% m/m for a year-on-year decline of 24.2%. The less volatile (and perfered) Trend measure showed a 0.6% m/m drop and a fall of 21.8% y/y. House approvals …read more

Shifting Participation Rates in Queensland regions

Some months ago we considered the impacts of changes in age and sex demographics within the labour force and the impact this was having on Participation Rates across Queensland. You can read the original post here which outlines the methodology used to split out the Propensity and Demographic Impacts within …read more

Regional employment data shows Trends in Cairns very strong (again)

The ABS original regional labour force data for April allows us to update our own Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series. With the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland dropping slightly in April to 5.9% (from 6.0%) we might have expected some modest imprivements in our regional data. The Trend unemployment rate …read more

Labour Force data is a bet each way for the RBA’s response

Following the RBA’s acknowledgement earlier this month that they would be careful watching employment data in coming months before making a determination about any future rate cut, today’s release of April’s data will have done little to clarify matters one way or the other. On the downside the headline (seasonally …read more

International arrivals growth to Australia slows to 7 year low as China goes backwards

The short term Arrivals and Departures data for March show international visitor growth into Australia has slowed further as Chinese visitor numbers slide backwards. The ABS Trend series shows short term international arrivals grew at just 2.2% for the year to March, its slowest pace since Jan 2012. Visitors from …read more

Trend building approvals down again…but has Townsville hit bottom?

The release from the ABS of original residential building approvals data for March allows us to update our own Queensland SA4, and Northern LGA regional Conus Trend series. While the ABS Trend data showed approvals down 35.1% y/y across Queensland the Conus Trend allows us to see that Greater Brisbane …read more

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