Shifting Participation Rates in Queensland regions

Posted on May 29, 2019 by - Cairns, Jobs, Population, QLD, Townsville, Uncategorized, Youth

Some months ago we considered the impacts of changes in age and sex demographics within the labour force and the impact this was having on Participation Rates across Queensland. You can read the original post here which outlines the methodology used to split out the Propensity and Demographic Impacts within changes in participation, and the follow-up post here which considered the impacts for both male and female cohorts.

With the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Employment Trend data for April 2019 coming out last week we have revisited the issue with the latest data. The table below shows the impacts of both propensity and demographic impacts across both sex cohorts since Oct 1998.

There’s a lot to consider here, but some general themes are clear.

  • The demographic impact, caused largely by an ageing population, has been a negative drag on participation in almost all regions and at a similar rate for both male and female cohorts (although some notable exceptions exist).
  • Almost all regions have witnessed a significant positive increase in female particiaption caused by the propensity to work effect. Almost all regions have also seen a (smaller) negative impact from the male propensity effect.

Some notable regional differences are;

  • Gold Coast has seen a strongly positive demographic effect adding to strong female propsensity effect. The Goldie is attracting young workers.
  • Regions that have seen large declines in participation (e.g. Wide Bay, Toowoomba, Townsville and Brisbane West) have all seen strongly negative male demographic effects which suggests the age make-up of the male labour force has shifted older at a faster rate than the State average. Similar, but less dramatic, effects also seen in the female cohort demonstrate a faster-ageing labour force in general.

Consideration of individual regions and varying time-frames requires further analysis. Anyone interested in pursuing further information is invited to contact Pete at pete@conus.com.au to discuss.

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