Latest Conus modeling

The second quarter GDP release earlier this week (see here for details) allows us to update our Conus model for Australia, Queensland and the various LGAs in our region. Australia’s second quarter GDP fell by 7.0% q/q for a 6.3% y/y decline. Although we got data for the Queensland Q2 …read more

Second quarter GDP falls by 7.0% q/q; QLD domestic economy down 5.9% q/q

As was inevitable the Australian economy contracted by 7.0% q/q in the second quarter of the year (after a 0.3% q/q fall in Q1). This equates to a 6.3% year-on-year fall with the 2019/20 year showing a 0.2% decline after a 2.0% increase in 2018/19. Australia’s run of avoiding recessions …read more

QLD Gross State Product in Q1 fell 0.3%

Yesterday afternoon saw the Queensland Treasury release their estimate of Gross State Product for the March quarter. While the ABS provide estimates for the domestic side of the State’s economy each quarter (and we will see the Q2 data tomorrow along with the annual 2019/20 figure) we have to rely …read more

The recovery is proving a slow slog

Any thoughts of a snap-back, V-shaped recovery in the Australian economy are long gone. With Melbourne only half-way through a second wave, 6 week lock-down the third quarter GDP data (which we will not see until December) may be negative, although our model is still projecting a modest q/q gain, …read more

Cairns region has been in recession since the end of 2019

Yesterday’s national GDP data (see here for commentary) showed that Australia is in recession; first quarter GDP fell 0.3% qq and, as is abundantly clear, the second quarter data will show a further significant decline (our projection is for a 8.7% qq fall). This national data, combined with the recent …read more

Australia is in recession….Q1 GDP falls 0.3%

The release of the Q1 GDP data by the ABS this morning confirms what anyone already knows…Australia is in recession. Although we will not get the official numbers for the second quarter for another three months, it is clear that a three month shut-down from March will inevitably mean a …read more

Q4 Queensland Gross State Product shows the economy speeding up a touch at the end of 2019

While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual basis we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. We’ll get the ABS estimates of State Final Demand for the first quarter 2020 tomorrow with the release of national GDP data, but …read more

Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more

A model in a time of ‘radical uncertainty’

I spent part of this morning listening to Prof John Kay, author of Radical Uncertainty: Decision making for an unknowable future, talking to my friend Gene Tunny on his Economics Explained podcast. It’s a fascinating chat about a highly topical subject (although the book was written prior to the COVID-19 …read more

Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

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