Cairns region has been in recession since the end of 2019

Yesterday’s national GDP data (see here for commentary) showed that Australia is in recession; first quarter GDP fell 0.3% qq and, as is abundantly clear, the second quarter data will show a further significant decline (our projection is for a 8.7% qq fall). This national data, combined with the recent …read more

Australia is in recession….Q1 GDP falls 0.3%

The release of the Q1 GDP data by the ABS this morning confirms what anyone already knows…Australia is in recession. Although we will not get the official numbers for the second quarter for another three months, it is clear that a three month shut-down from March will inevitably mean a …read more

Q4 Queensland Gross State Product shows the economy speeding up a touch at the end of 2019

While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual basis we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. We’ll get the ABS estimates of State Final Demand for the first quarter 2020 tomorrow with the release of national GDP data, but …read more

Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more

A model in a time of ‘radical uncertainty’

I spent part of this morning listening to Prof John Kay, author of Radical Uncertainty: Decision making for an unknowable future, talking to my friend Gene Tunny on his Economics Explained podcast. It’s a fascinating chat about a highly topical subject (although the book was written prior to the COVID-19 …read more

Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

Q4 GDP surprises on the upside. QLD still relying on the public sector

The fourth quarter GDP data released this morning was stronger than expectations, which along with upward revisions to past quarters saw the year-on-year number significantly better than had been hoped for. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.5% q/q for a year-on-year increase of 2.2% (up from 1.8% in the previous quarter).   …read more

GDP remains weak but upward revisions provide some hope

The second quarter GDP data released this morning was slightly weaker than expectations, although upward revisions to past quarters saw the year-on-year number actually somewhat better than had been hoped for.  Seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.4% q/q for a year-on-year increase of 1.7% (up from 1.6% in the previous quarter). …read more

QLD economy slowed sharply in 2018/19

Earlier this week saw the release by Queensland Treasury of the State Accounts for the second quarter of 2019. As we noted last quarter, this data gets precious little coverage and yet is, in our opinion, a very useful indicator of how the State economy has been performing. While the ABS produce …read more

GDP slows as expected; +1.4% y/y

The second quarter GDP data released today shows q/q growth of 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) or 1.4% for the year (down from a revised 1.7% the previous quarter. This result is broadly in-line with market expectations and comes on the back of continued weak household consumption (which sees household savings fall …read more

© Conus Business Consultancy Services 2020

Website created by RJ New Designs