Q2 GDP +0.7% …… but does it really mean much?

The second quarter GDP data released this morning was better than many had been expecting with a 0.7% q/q lift which (after some small upward revisions to previous quarters) takes us to a heady 9.6% up from the same period a year ago. Over the past 4 quarters GDP is …read more

GDP recovery well on track Q1 +1.8% q/q

The first quarter GDP data released this morning was better than many had been expecting with a 1.8% q/q lift which (after some small upward revisions to previous quarters) takes us to 1.1% up from the same period a year ago. Over the past 4 quarters GDP remains down 2.4%. …read more

Queensland Gross State Product in Q3 ’20 +6.7% q/q and -1.2% y/y

While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual FY basis (which had QLD GSP at -1.1% for 2019/20) we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. This week finally saw QLD Treasury release their estimate for the Sept Quarter 2020. …read more

GDP surprises to the upside. +3.1% q/q.

Expectations had been for a 2.5% q/q lift in Q4 GDP. The actual result (+3.1% q/q) gave a fall of just 1.1% y/y (up from -3.7% in Q3) on the back of solid household consumption (albeit matched to a falling household saving rate). Queensland State Final Demand was up 2.0% …read more

Queensland Treasury estimates for Gross State Product Q2 finally arrive

While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual basis (for the 2019/20 year they estimate Gross State Product in QLD fell 1.1%) we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. With the QLD Budget having been delayed until last week …read more

Q3 GDP rebounds strongly and Queensland leads the pack of States

The third quarter GDP data released this morning was better than many had been expecting with a 3.3% q/q lift which leaves us 3.8% down for the year. This brings to an end the official recession after Q1 and Q2 were both negative, although this is largely meaningless given the …read more

Latest Conus modeling

The second quarter GDP release earlier this week (see here for details) allows us to update our Conus model for Australia, Queensland and the various LGAs in our region. Australia’s second quarter GDP fell by 7.0% q/q for a 6.3% y/y decline. Although we got data for the Queensland Q2 …read more

Second quarter GDP falls by 7.0% q/q; QLD domestic economy down 5.9% q/q

As was inevitable the Australian economy contracted by 7.0% q/q in the second quarter of the year (after a 0.3% q/q fall in Q1). This equates to a 6.3% year-on-year fall with the 2019/20 year showing a 0.2% decline after a 2.0% increase in 2018/19. Australia’s run of avoiding recessions …read more

QLD Gross State Product in Q1 fell 0.3%

Yesterday afternoon saw the Queensland Treasury release their estimate of Gross State Product for the March quarter. While the ABS provide estimates for the domestic side of the State’s economy each quarter (and we will see the Q2 data tomorrow along with the annual 2019/20 figure) we have to rely …read more

The recovery is proving a slow slog

Any thoughts of a snap-back, V-shaped recovery in the Australian economy are long gone. With Melbourne only half-way through a second wave, 6 week lock-down the third quarter GDP data (which we will not see until December) may be negative, although our model is still projecting a modest q/q gain, …read more

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