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Buried in the Statement on Monetary Policy released last week is an ‘In Depth’ chapter on the impact of higher global energy prices on the Australian economy. It is worth reading on its own merits, but it is worth reading with one specific question in mind: what does this mean …read more
The RBA Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate by 25bps to 4.35% on Tuesday, the third consecutive hike of 2026 and the third consecutive line-ball call delivered with the same answer. The vote, however, was anything but line-ball this time: 8-1 in favour of the hike, with one member …read more
Despite the fact that the headline CPI for February dipped slightly from 3.8% to 3.7%, inflation is clearly still a problem. This monthly data read will not be showing the effect of the oil prices prices we have seen during March. In addition, the Trimmed Mean measure of core inflation …read more
As we noted last week following the release of the third quarter CPI data, the RBA are clearly in no hurry to start cutting rates. Their recently released Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) starts out with a clear message… “Underlying inflation remains too high. Headline inflation has fallen sharply in …read more
Today’s release of the third quarter CPI data was broadly in line with market expectations. Headline CPI fell to 2.8% (which is just inside the RBA’s 2-3% target range) but the more closely watched Trimmed Mean (core inflation) remained somewhat elevated at 3.5%. The reason the RBA will be focused …read more
The headline CPI for the March quarter fell to 3.6% y/y (from 4.1% in the December quarter). While this is certainly a move in the right direction as far as the RBA are concerned, the fact that the Core measure (which excludes volatile elements within the CPI) is still at …read more
The data for the second quarter CPI shows (as generally expected) that inflation has moved further above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Headline CPI was up 1.8% q/q for a y/y increase of 6.1% (up from 5.2% in the March quarter). The RBA’s Core inflation measure also increased; up …read more
Headline CPI for the final quarter of 2021 has come in hotter than expected at +1.3% q/q (exp +1.0%) and +3.5% y/y (exp +2.8%). However, the increases are focused on 4 main expenditure groups; Transport +12.5% y/y Housing +4.0% y/y Furnishings & H’hold equipment +3.6% y/y Health +3.3% y/y No …read more
The headline CPI figure for the third quarter came in broadly in line with market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter increase was unchanged at +0.8% (actually unchanged at +0.76%) but the year/year increase fell back to +3.0% (from +3.8% in the June quarter) as base effects unwound. However, what is far more …read more
The ABS-produced Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation for a basket of good and services in the 8 Capital Cities and then uses that data to produce a weighted average for the nation. This is the headline inflation number with which we are all familiar; and in the second quarter of …read more
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