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The second quarter GDP release earlier this week (see here for details) allows us to update our Conus model for Australia, Queensland and the various LGAs in our region. Australia’s second quarter GDP fell by 7.0% q/q for a 6.3% y/y decline. Although we got data for the Queensland Q2 …read more
After a period of stagnation in the Google Community Mobility data over recent weeks on the back of the Melbourne lock-down we are starting to see some evidence of activity picking up again. The most recent data to 28th August shows Victoria coming off recent lows and all other states …read more
As was inevitable the Australian economy contracted by 7.0% q/q in the second quarter of the year (after a 0.3% q/q fall in Q1). This equates to a 6.3% year-on-year fall with the 2019/20 year showing a 0.2% decline after a 2.0% increase in 2018/19. Australia’s run of avoiding recessions …read more
Yesterday afternoon saw the Queensland Treasury release their estimate of Gross State Product for the March quarter. While the ABS provide estimates for the domestic side of the State’s economy each quarter (and we will see the Q2 data tomorrow along with the annual 2019/20 figure) we have to rely …read more
Any thoughts of a snap-back, V-shaped recovery in the Australian economy are long gone. With Melbourne only half-way through a second wave, 6 week lock-down the third quarter GDP data (which we will not see until December) may be negative, although our model is still projecting a modest q/q gain, …read more
Today’s release from the ABS of the Payrolls data to the week ending 8th August suggests that we might expect some improvement in Cairns’ Conus/CBC Staff Selection series for August when released later next month. Payrolls data (sourced from the ATO’s Single Touch Payroll system) showed payrolls in the Cairns …read more
Not surprisingly, given the poor State performance noted last week (see here for details), the labour markets across most of QLD have deteriorated in July according to the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend. The Trend unemployment rate, which sits at 8.8% in QLD, lifted to 8.7% in Greater Brisbane and 9.0% …read more
The July Labour Force data from the ABS this morning showed employment had grown another 114,700 in the month. While the last 2 months have seen significant recovery we should not lose sight of the fact that employment remains more than 500,000 below where we started the year. Another sharp …read more
The re-starting of the domestic tourism industry is clearly underway in the Far North. The latest data from the Cairns Airport show total passenger numbers jumping to 109,104 in July (from a low in 11,153 in April). Although total passenger numbers are down 78% from a year earlier the domestic …read more
The divergence between those states enjoying a better health outcomes and those not has become clearer with the release this morning of the ABS Weekly Payrolls data to July 25th (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system). While payrolls fell 0.1% m/m across Australia, QLD saw a 0.9% increase. …read more
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series