While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual FY basis (which had QLD GSP at -1.1% for 2019/20) we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. This week finally saw QLD Treasury release their estimate for the Sept Quarter 2020. It shows GSP was up 6.7% q/q, -1.2% y/y and -1.6% for the 12 months to Sept. This compares with Australia GDP for the same period of +3.4% q/q, -3.7% y/y and -1.6% annual.
There is often some material difference between the ABS quarterly State Final Demand (which is the domestic side of the economy) and the QLD Treasury estimate for Gross State Expenditure (also the domestic component of the state economy) although such differences are usually largely revised away in subsequent releases. The data for Q3 2020 from both sources is actually quite similar; while the ABS estimated SFD at +7.0% q/q, QLD Treasury had +7.7% q/q. Year-on -year estimates were also close (+0.8% y/y ABS and +1.0% y/y Treasury) and the annual rates were both -0.4%.
Household expenditure ( the largest component of both national GDP and State GSP) has been much stronger in Queensland than nationally. Across Australia in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 Household expenditure fell 12.3% then grew 7.9%. In Queensland the Q2 decline was much less (-9.8% Treasury or -9.6% ABS) and the Q3 growth much more (+11.8% Treasury or 11.7% ABS). Q4 saw household expenditure lift another 4.3% nationally; the ABS estimate for Queensland was a less dramatic +2.3%, which is hardly surprising given the very strong Q3 figure.