While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual basis (for the 2019/20 year they estimate Gross State Product in QLD fell 1.1%) we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods.
With the QLD Budget having been delayed until last week we were not surprised that Treasury delayed the release of the Q2 GSP data until late last week.
While we have previously seen some disparity between the ABS and Treasury estimates we tend to see these disparities largely revised away over time.
For the Q2 quarter the ABS had estimated State Final Demand (SFD), which is the domestic component of the State economy, fell by 6.1% q/q which was then followed by a very strong 6.8% q/q bounce in Q3 (see here for more detail). The Treasury figure for Q2, released late Friday, estimates that domestic part of the Queensland economy to have similarly contracted by 6.4% q/q.
When we consider the Gross State Product the latest Treasury estimates for Q2 showed an 8.9% q/q reduction which resulted in a 8.9% y/y contraction (this compares to a 7.0% q/q and 6.4% y/y fall in national GDP in the same period). The Treasury seasonally adjusted figures suggest a 0.5% contraction for 2019/20 (compared to a 1.1% fall from the ABS and a 0.4% decline outlined in the 2020/21 Budget…both of which are original, rather than seasonally adjusted, figures). Clearly there is some discrepancy here but, as we noted earlier and as the chart below makes clear, these discrepancies are usually largely revised away over time.
The fact that Q3 GDP rebounded as strongly as it did (+3.3% q/q) at a time when the Victorian economy was effectively locked up would suggests that we are likely to see an even stronger rebound in QLD GSP in that quarter once we finally see the data in another 3 months. Certainly the state-based data that we have, such as employment, retail trade, and payrolls, all point to a solid rebound in Q3 in the Sunshine State.