US Q1 GDP revised to a fall..don’t panic!

Overnight the second estimate of first quarter GDP in the US came out weaker than had been expected at an annualised decline of 1% (revised from an increase of 0.1% and against expectations of a 0.5% fall). However, the fall was being slated to a poor weather in the early …read more

Comm Bank and ANZ both positive on growth

Back from a busy few busy days in Cairns which included two economics breakfasts; one yesterday with Michael Workman from Comm Bank (hosted by the AICD) and the other this morning with Warren Hogan from ANZ (hosted by Advance Cairns). Both painted fairly positive pictures for Australian growth in the …read more

2014-15 Budget

Last nights’ Budget has inevitably attracted a raft of comment in today’s media. We don’t intend to add a great deal to that since one’s stance on the pros and cons of the announcements will largely be a matter for where your politics sit. What is interesting is the divergence …read more

RBA tweak forecasts in SOMP

The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (available here) only marginally tweaks their forecasts for GDP and inflation. GDP growth is revised a little higher for the year ending June 2014, while inflation is revised very slightly lower. Forecasts further out into coming years remained unchanged. ¬† Year ending Previous …read more

US Q1 GDP almost at a standstill but Fed continue to taper

Overnight the first (of three) estimates of US GDP growth in the first quarter came in well below expectations at +0.1% annualised (down from +2.6% in the previous quarter). While markets had expected a slowdown caused by the severe winter weather, the actual result was weaker than most had anticipated.¬†Nevertheless, …read more

Q4 CAPEX will hit GDP. Forward estimate weak.

Today’s release of Private Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) for Q4 2013 shows a very sharp (and unexpected) slowdown from Q3. Seasonally adjusted data shows a contraction of 5.2% while the Trend estimate is a decline of 0.7%. Q3’s increase was revised down to +2.6% from +3.6%. The closely watched equipment, plant …read more

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