Thoughts on Cairns’ COVID future

Posted on August 24, 2021 by - Cairns, COVID-19, Uncategorized

I’ve been approached by The Cairns Post for some thoughts on where Cairns might be heading in our COVID future and how best we can get there, and what the ‘clear path’ might be. I’m certainly no health expert, but their question forced me to put pen to paper and think about where I think we stand now and where we might be headed. These are simply my thoughts; they are hopefully no more, or less, valid than many others but I found it interesting to try and articulate some of my thinking and I thought some readers might also find it interesting. So this is what I said to the paper…

“I think what is clear is that there is no ‘clear path’ forward.

Obviously getting to the 70-80% vaccination rate (or any other arbitrary number we choose) will hopefully ensure that infection spread is diminished and that hospitalisations and deaths are minimised. But the Doherty Report makes it clear that this does not mean no deaths. However, what the population’s appetite, and the health system’s capacity, is for such deaths seems to me at this stage to be very unclear. This will be especially true if we consider that children under 16yo will not be included in those vaccination rates.

I am no epidemiologist or public heath expert, but the Doherty Report seems to suggest that the question is not so much about the fact that people will get sick, some will need hospitalisation and some will die (it is clear that will happen) but rather about at what starting point of infections can we start to open without overwhelming the health system and contact tracing apparatus. It would seem to me that opening up while there are still many thousands of cases in the community with only about 60% of the total population (incl children) vaccinated would be likely to lead to large numbers of both hospitalisations and deaths that the community would in all likelihood find unacceptable (especially if some of those deaths were children).

From an economic standpoint this would become as much about health outcomes as it is policy responses. Even if lock-downs have been stopped (or heavily curtailed), economic activity is likely to still suffer if people (and their kids) are facing a genuine and significant perceived health risk from the virus…behavior change will ensure that.

For Cairns to move forward we need to see the whole country move forward…we cannot do this in isolation. Ultimately the whole world will need to move forward if we are to see a return to anything like ‘normal’.

Clearly at some point we (and the rest of the world) need to learn to ‘live with COVID’…..at least for the next few years until such time as genuine herd immunity arises and COVID becomes just another of the novel coronaviruses that are already endemic in humans. What that will look like I think is still very unclear but will almost certainly include at least some, or all of these;

  • High levels of vaccination at all ages (and probably ongoing booster shots)
  • Some continued public health mitigation strategies such as social distancing, mask-wearing where appropriate, QR codes and contact tracing etc.
  • Likely some limited lock-downs where outbreaks threaten to overwhelm local health services. These, you would hope, would be short, sharp and very targeted and come with government support
  • Some kind of proof of vaccination status (call it a vaccine passport if you must) for those wishing to travel overseas or into Australia. This will likely be imposed by countries, as has been the case for many years for diseases such as Yellow Fever, and transport providers
  • Continued shift towards more domestic, rather than international, travel
  • Continued shift towards a more hybrid type of working…a mix of work-from-home and office-based where possible (this will have implications for town planning and infrastructure requirements)
  • Some employers mandating vaccination for employees

For Cairns to survive through to the ‘other side’ (whatever that is!) will require us to;

  • Ensure that we get vaccinated in very high numbers.
  • Diversify our economy so that we are not as reliant on international tourism as we have been in the past
  • Think about how we can do the business we need to do in as COVID-safe a way as possible; this will likely mean adherence to some public health measures, limiting (not banning) times when people gather in large numbers indoors without very good reason etc.
  • Market our region heavily to the domestic, as well as international, market and ensure that people know that coming here is as safe as possible (see point above)
  • Prepare for an influx of domestic migrants moving into regional centres and away from Capital Cities. This is already happening and will need good planning and provision of better infrastructure.

Hope all of that is some use. As I say, I am no health expert, but it is clear that economic outcomes depend upon health outcomes…this is a health crisis and needs to be solved as such.”

 

Responses

  1. Stephen Thornton says:

    August 24th, 2021 at 3:12 am

    Seems to be sound thoughts on the best way forward, acknowledging the uncertainties that obviously exist with this pandemic. The sleeper issue in Australia is booster shots which will be a must (and you acknowledge boosters).

  2. Pete Faulkner says:

    August 24th, 2021 at 4:15 am

    Thanks Stephen.

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