Q3 GDP rebounds strongly and Queensland leads the pack of States

The third quarter GDP data released this morning was better than many had been expecting with a 3.3% q/q lift which leaves us 3.8% down for the year. This brings to an end the official recession after Q1 and Q2 were both negative, although this is largely meaningless given the …read more

Switch to JobKeeper 2.0 hits small business hard

At the end of Sept the JobKeeper stimulus, which had been in place since April, converted to a more stringent set of qualification requirements (as well as decreases to the amounts paid) for the period to the end of Dec at which time there will be another (and probably final) …read more

Regions lead the employment gains in QLD

The original ABS regional labour force data for October out today allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series and what this makes clear is that the recovery in employment seen in Queensland (see here for more details of last week’s State and National data) is being driven …read more

Why does Queensland’s unemployment rate look so high if the labour market is doing so well?

We have been highlighting for some time the fact that the Queensland labour market has benefitted from the positive health outcomes in the State (see here for the most recent October data). This analysis has not been universally agreed with and some commentators have pointed at alternative data sets, such …read more

Jobs roar back. QLD employment growth rate turns positive.

The October Labour Force survey data beat most expectations on the upside with an additional 178,800 employed for the month. This takes the annual rate of jobs loss to just 1.0%. With a strong pick-up in participation (from 64.9 to 65.8) we also see the headline unemployment rate lift to …read more

Strong building approvals data for the North

Last week saw solid Sept building approvals data at the national and state level (see here for details) with QLD recording a 7.1% y/y increase. Today’s release of the original regional data by the ABS allows us to update our Conus regional Trend data and this shows that, while Greater …read more

August TRA update shows how well QLD has been doing

Tourism Research Australia have been providing monthly snapshot updates on domestic travel and today we saw the August numbers. What we see is that since March 2020 domestic overnight expenditure has fallen across the nation by 23%, in Queensland expenditure is up 59% and regional Queensland is up an astonishing …read more

Building Approvals do well in Sept.

Residential building approvals in September beat expectations with a 15.4% m/m increase which translates to a 8.8% y/y increase. House approvals are up 22.1% from a year ago while units are down 10.3%. In Queensland September saw a 19.3% jump for the month (significantly better than Victoria or NSW) which …read more

Youth in Greater Melbourne have been especially badly hit by the lock-down

The ABS regional labour force data released last week (when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend) allows us to see the significant impact that the Victoria, and particularly the Melbourne, lock-down have had on the youth cohort. Since March total employment in Victoria has fallen 218,800 (or 6.4%). …read more

Domestic tourism; the Far North’s saviour for now

As we noted a few weeks ago when the National Visitor Survey results for the June quarter came out (see here for details), the Far North had done somewhat better (although with an almost 13% drop in visitor numbers ‘better’ is relative) than the nation as a whole. Today we …read more

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