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There has been a lot written about the fact that the Participation Rates across Australia fell sharply as the effects of the COVID-19 lock-down took effect. These falls at national, state and regional level had the effect of suppressing the anticipated rises in the unemployment rates. Participation rates, prior to …read more
Yesterday’s national GDP data (see here for commentary) showed that Australia is in recession; first quarter GDP fell 0.3% qq and, as is abundantly clear, the second quarter data will show a further significant decline (our projection is for a 8.7% qq fall). This national data, combined with the recent …read more
The release of the Q1 GDP data by the ABS this morning confirms what anyone already knows…Australia is in recession. Although we will not get the official numbers for the second quarter for another three months, it is clear that a three month shut-down from March will inevitably mean a …read more
While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual basis we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. We’ll get the ABS estimates of State Final Demand for the first quarter 2020 tomorrow with the release of national GDP data, but …read more
Much has happened since we last updated our model projections. We’ve had the ABS regional labour force data (see here for commentary and the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trends) which showed large declines in participation across the nation, state and regions; the ABS produced their Payroll data up to the week …read more
I spoke about regional employment in Central and North Queensland on a webinar organised by Solar Citizens yesterday. I was joined by Solar Citizens National Director, Ellen Roberts and David Leitch from energy specialist consultancy ITK who spoke about the opportunities in the solar and wind space for Central and …read more
The release of the April Labour Force survey today was always expected to throw up some surprises. This is the first monthly data set that reveals the true extent of the COVID-19 impacts on the labour market. Market expectations around the level of employment losses had been remarkably similar (given …read more
The March Arrivals and Departures data from the ABS this morning, while looking horrible, is likely to be eclipsed by even more disturbing numbers in the future. March saw a decline of 59.9% in short term international arrivals from the same month a year ago Over the course of the …read more
The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more
After the Victorian unit led surge in approvals in February (see here for details) the market was prepared for a substantial decline in the March data. The result was rather better than expected with just a 4.0% m/m decline (seasonally adjusted). The less volatile Trend series moved back into positive …read more
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series