Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland.

The breakdown by industry showed;

  • Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld)
  • Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2%
  • Retail down 6.0%/6.1%
  • Construction down 6.1%/5.2%
  • Agriculture down 10.3%/5.9%

While Healthcare was down 3.2% across the nation (impacts of elective surgeries being suspended?) it was up 1.7% in Queensland.

Plugging the insights from this new data into our model provides the following results. As you can see, it shows Cairns unemployment rate hitting 15.4% as a top (better than many due to our lower starting point) but staying elevated for much longer (still 11.7% by year end) and Gross Regional Product falling by 7.3% in 2020.

We are now expecting Queensland unemployment to get as high as 14.3% before falling to 9.1% by the end of the year with Gross State Product declining 5.4% over 2020.

The actual Labour Force data for April will be released on May 14th and then the regional data a week later on May 21st; at which time we will be relaesing our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data and  updating this model once again.

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