The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland.
The breakdown by industry showed;
While Healthcare was down 3.2% across the nation (impacts of elective surgeries being suspended?) it was up 1.7% in Queensland.
Plugging the insights from this new data into our model provides the following results. As you can see, it shows Cairns unemployment rate hitting 15.4% as a top (better than many due to our lower starting point) but staying elevated for much longer (still 11.7% by year end) and Gross Regional Product falling by 7.3% in 2020.
We are now expecting Queensland unemployment to get as high as 14.3% before falling to 9.1% by the end of the year with Gross State Product declining 5.4% over 2020.
The actual Labour Force data for April will be released on May 14th and then the regional data a week later on May 21st; at which time we will be relaesing our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data and updating this model once again.