Solar Citizens webinar recording

I spoke about regional employment in Central and North Queensland on a webinar organised by Solar Citizens yesterday. I was joined by Solar Citizens National Director, Ellen Roberts and David Leitch from energy specialist consultancy ITK who spoke about the opportunities in the solar and wind space for Central and …read more

Huge drop in Participation throws unemployment rate forecasts out the window

The release of the April Labour Force survey today was always expected to throw up some surprises. This is the first monthly data set that reveals the true extent of the COVID-19 impacts on the labour market. Market expectations around the level of employment losses had been remarkably similar (given …read more

Latest ABS COVID jobs data allows us to update our model

The ABS released their special bi-weekly jobs data today. It showed jobs falling by 6.9% in the month from 21st March in Australia; the decline was 6.1% in Queensland. The breakdown by industry showed; Accommodation & Food down 30.9%/27.9% (Aus/Qld) Arts & Recreation down 11.8%/11.2% Retail down 6.0%/6.1% Construction down …read more

Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

March labour force data shows the North was in a strong position prior to the COVID-19 impacts

The ABS released their original, unadjusted regional labour force data this morning which allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for the QLD SA4 regions. While last week we saw the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland decline to 5.7% (see here for details) today’s data …read more

Updating and expanding our model forecasts; Cairns unemployment to peak close to 14%

Yesterday saw the ABS release the first of their weekly releases looking at payroll and wages data. This new data set, well in advance of the full April Labour Force survey, gives us a first opportunity (albeit with some caveats and reservations) to see the impact of the COVID-19 inspired …read more

Surreal Labour Force data for March sets the scene for April

The March ABS Labour Force survey, the data from which was released this morning, was conducted in the early part of March and as such was never going to capture the full extent of the COVID-19 impacts. Nevertheless the results have surprised the markets and, given what we know has …read more

Some best-guess COVID-19 impacted forecasts

Now that things on the COVID-19 front appear to have settled down a little, policy initiatives are clearer, and it is looking more and more unlikely that we are going to see significantly more restrictive lock-downs we feel able to take some educated guesses about what the economic fall-out might …read more

Public Sector employment in Queensland fell last quarter; second quarter of annual declines

Despite some of commentary that still runs along the lines of “Queensland’s jobs growth is all down to the State Govt hiring“, the latest data from the ABS for the quarter to Feb shows that reality is actually quite the reverse, at least over the course of the past 18 …read more

It’s largely irrelevant now; but Feb Trend data shows Cairns employment strong before COVID-19 came along

The release by the ABS of their original regional labour force data for Feb allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend data. What it shows is a very strong labour market in the Cairns region before the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak was felt. Whilst this …read more

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