As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.
Things remains slightly worse in Queensland and in some Queensland regions, most notable Cairns and the Gold Coast, as they suffer from the effects on tourism which are likely to be felt more severely and for longer. In the Gold Coast and Cairns unemployment could get as high as 15% and remain above 13% to September. The year on year contarctions in the economy by September will be about 4.4% nationally and in Queensland with Gold & Sunshine Coasts and Cairns performing far worse.
The model will continue to be updated as new data comes to hand, or the course of the health emergency shifts.