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The weekly payrolls data from the ABS up to 19th Sept shows that it’s small businesses (fewer than 20 employees) which are suffering the highest job losses; a situation only likely to have been further exacerbated as the JobKeeper stimulus began to wind-back from the end of Sept. While total …read more
After a spell of limited data coming from the Google Community Mobility data (due to them revising a few of the indexes) we now have data up to the end of Sept (data available here). The combined indexes show a generally stabilising trend over recent weeks. Victoria has partially recovered …read more
The second quarter GDP release earlier this week (see here for details) allows us to update our Conus model for Australia, Queensland and the various LGAs in our region. Australia’s second quarter GDP fell by 7.0% q/q for a 6.3% y/y decline. Although we got data for the Queensland Q2 …read more
After a period of stagnation in the Google Community Mobility data over recent weeks on the back of the Melbourne lock-down we are starting to see some evidence of activity picking up again. The most recent data to 28th August shows Victoria coming off recent lows and all other states …read more
Any thoughts of a snap-back, V-shaped recovery in the Australian economy are long gone. With Melbourne only half-way through a second wave, 6 week lock-down the third quarter GDP data (which we will not see until December) may be negative, although our model is still projecting a modest q/q gain, …read more
Today’s release from the ABS of the Payrolls data to the week ending 8th August suggests that we might expect some improvement in Cairns’ Conus/CBC Staff Selection series for August when released later next month. Payrolls data (sourced from the ATO’s Single Touch Payroll system) showed payrolls in the Cairns …read more
The divergence between those states enjoying a better health outcomes and those not has become clearer with the release this morning of the ABS Weekly Payrolls data to July 25th (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system). While payrolls fell 0.1% m/m across Australia, QLD saw a 0.9% increase. …read more
Last week we posted using the Google Mobility Data (Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports”. www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 10/8/20) as a proxy for economic activity (see here for the full details). Google’s data has now been updated to 4th August so we have updated our two measures (‘Activity’ and ‘Economic Activity’). …read more
Google have been providing data on their “Community Mobility Indexes” for some time to help track the impacts of COVID-19 (you can get further details here). The indexes measure movement in six categories; Grocery & pharmacy Mobility trends for places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, …read more
The lock-down now in place in Melbourne could see an additional 260,000 workers miss out on JobKeeper (JK) support due to the 2-quarters requirements of the new regime. On our pre-lock-down estimates we would have seen the JK 1.0 original 3.5 million figure drop to 2.0 million in Oct had …read more
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series