RBA revises down growth and inflation forecasts

Today’s release of the Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) from the RBA sees the Bank revising down their forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in coming years (available for download here). This will come as no surprise given their recent cut to the Cash Rate and the fact that …read more

Cairns employment growth slows; unemployment rate up on back of female jobless

The Trend of improving employment data for the Cairns region that we have been discussing this year appears to have come to a halt. Today’s release from the ABS of unadjusted labour market data for May has the headline unemployment rate in Cairns jumping to 9.8% (from 6.8% in April) …read more

Phew! The Chinese New Year data suggests no need to worry

After a concerning few months for Chinese visitor data, today sees the release of Feb data from the ABS (the period in which Chinese New Year fell this year) and it suggests that the China boom may still be intact. The ABS are rushing to catch up with their arrivals and …read more

Very strong jobs numbers, but focus on revisions and the Trend and it’s less exciting

The ABS jobs data for May has surprised on the upside. New jobs created (according to the headline seasonally adjusted series) were at 42,000; well in advance of estimates that centred around 12,000. However, what has been less commented upon is the fact that the April decline (originally slated as …read more

Local Building Approvals slow

Regional ABS data for April shows building approvals in the Cassowary Coast slowed sharply, despite positive comments from the Council about first quarter data in the local press just last week (see our previous commentary on what appeared strong data). Unadjusted approvals in April were just 2 (after 11 in …read more

Herron Todd White agrees; Cairns Trend employment improving

The latest Cairns Watch from Herron Todd White (available here), confirms our own Conus Trend analysis of the Cairns labour market. Back on May 14th we posted that the Trend unemployment rate in the Cairns region had improved to 7.2%, unchanged from a downwardly revised April number. You can read our …read more

US jobs signal possible Fed move this year

A very strong set of non-farm payrolls numbers from the US overnight has reignited thoughts of a hike in rates from the Fed as early as Sept this year; and that has seen the US$ rally (the A$ lost almost a cent on the data release and now stands at …read more

Retail Trade flat in April; but let’s not get too excited

ABS data for April shows Retail Trade unchanged in April from March (on a seasonally adjusted basis) which follows a 0.2% increase in March (revised down from 0.3%). However, before we get too excited about what appears to be a sharp decline in the main engine of growth (i.e household …read more

GDP surprises on the upside. QLD returns to growth

The first quarter GDP data released this morning has surprised the market coming in at +0.9% (exp +0.7%) for an annual rate of +2.3% (exp +2.1%). As a result the A$ took a short rally higher; although that now appears to have rather run out of steam. Stronger growth came …read more

Building Approvals disappoint but it’s all down to units

The Building Approvals data for April has come in weaker than anticipated, but the result is due to the (highly volatile) units sector experiencing heavy falls in the month. Seasonally adjusted data shows total approvals fell 4.4% on the month for a 16.3% increase over the year. However, house approvals …read more

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