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A new year, and a time to reflect on where we stand in Queensland. And as far as the pollies are concerned (while Parliament is yet to return) the emphasis appears, as ever, to be on spinning the data to make whatever point they wish. In today’s Australian we see …read more
Once again highly volatile unit approvals have pushed building approvals data for November above market expectations. While the market had been looking for a 4.6% m/m increase in the seasonally adjusted data (after a 12.6% drop last month) unit approvals resulted in an actual total increase of 7.0% (down 4.8% …read more
Our own Conus Trend series for Cairns SA4, based on the original ABS regional data, showed another reduction in Trend unemployment in November to 6.3%. The Dept of Social Security payment recipients data released just before Christmas appears somewhat less positive. Recipient numbers in the region nudged up slightly, although the Conus …read more
Last week we released our Conus Trend data for all the Queensland regions and our estimate of a Trend unemployment rate in Cairns of 6.3% raised a few eyebrows. However, the latest release by Rick Carr, at Herron Todd White, of his Cairns Watch report is even more bullish (download …read more
The ABS original data for regional labour force was released this morning (along with some adjustments caused by the labour force re-benchmarking released earlier this month) and, as always, we need to consider this highly volatile data set in light of the Conus Trend to make much sense of it. …read more
Today saw the release of Tourism Australia’s National Visitor Survey for the Sept quarter (available for download here). It shows domestic tourism growing at almost 5% nationally but QLD, and TNQ in particular, not performing as well. Nation-wide domestic overnight visitors increased by 4.8% on the year to Sept to …read more
Today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) downgrades Treasury’s forecasts of economic growth and increases the size of fiscal deficits; but it sticks to the projection in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) of the budget returning to surplus in 2021-21 (albeit a revised down, razor thin surplus). The …read more
ABS estimated annual population growth has picked up slightly in the June from the previous quarter. Growth in Queensland increased from +1.30% to +1.35% over the quarter but remains below the national average of +1.42%. Victoria continues to lead the pack with growth picking up to +2.07% in the June …read more
The ABS release of jobs data for November contains an apparent paradox. Jobs rose strongly (up 39,100 seasonally adjusted) and yet the unemployment rate also went up (to 5.7%). As keen readers of this blog will realise the answer lies in the fact that the Participation Rate also increased (to …read more
As we have been noting for some time, the Participation Rate (that proportion of the working aged population in the labour force, i.e. either employed or counted as unemployed) has been falling for some time. On the latest data for Oct the Trend figure fell to 63.8 which is its …read more
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series