Reading much into Payrolls data confused by seasonal effects

The release by the ABS of the weekly Payrolls data up to 24th April might have been expected to provide some evidence of the impact of the end of JobKeeper. However, the fact that this data set is not seasonally adjusted, combined with the impact of the Easter holidays, means …read more

Domestic Tourism; expenditure to Feb fell 13% across Australia

Monthly snapshot data from Tourism Research Australia (see here) shows that domestic tourism expenditures fell 13.1% in the year to Feb across Australia. However, with the notable exception of regional QLD which saw a 6.2% reduction after some very strong data in previous months, regional areas in all States saw …read more

Taking a closer look at internal migration to QLD’s regions

A few days ago we posted on the December 2020 quarter’s Internal Migration data from the ABS (see here for details) and noted the high number of people moving into QLD’s regions, particularly out of Greater Melbourne and Sydney. This ABS data has only been made available since the June …read more

Building Approvals continue to surge in QLD

Data for March shows building approvals across Australia were up 17.4% m/m, for a 47.4% y/y increase. House approvals are up 62.2% for the year while units rose 28.1%. In Queensland total approvals were up 12.1% m/m but are surging 82.2% above where they were a year ago on the …read more

Queensland regions attracting large numbers of internal migrants through 2020

Data on internal migration for the Dec 2020 quarter shows the trend of strong movement from cities into the regions in 2020 continued across the whole year. Across the nation in the fourth quarter about 10,600 people left the capital cities to move to the regions (this comes on top …read more

Queensland Gross State Product in Q3 ’20 +6.7% q/q and -1.2% y/y

While the ABS produce Gross State Product data only on an annual FY basis (which had QLD GSP at -1.1% for 2019/20) we must rely on the quarterly estimates from QLD Treasury for the intermediate periods. This week finally saw QLD Treasury release their estimate for the Sept Quarter 2020. …read more

Cairns improves in March before removal of JobKeeper

The ABS original regional data for March released this morning allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection series. This shows employment growth at a slightly higher level in Greater Brisbane (+4.7% Trend and +2.8% s.a.) than in the Rest of QLD (+4.0% Trend and +2.1% s.a.) with 108,600 new …read more

What’s driving changes in Participation in QLD’s regions?

Much has been written about movements in the Participation Rate (PR) and the impact this has on unemployment rates; if participation increases then any decline in the unemployment rate is harder to achieve with more people entering the labour force (and vice versa). The discussion is certainly a valid one, …read more

JobSeeker recipients fall further in March

Dept of Social Services dats for March shows original number of JobSeeker recipients across Australia fell in March to 1.3 million (down 4.5% m/m and up 46.3% y/y). This is a 20.7% decline from the highs seen in May last year. In Queensland numbers also fell, here by 3.4% m/m …read more

Once again Labour Force data smashes expectations. Unemployment rate falls to 5.6%

We really should be used to it by now! The March Labour Force Survey data has once again beaten market expectations by a long way; employment was up 70,700 in March (the market had been expecting half of that) with the unemployment rate falling to 5.6% (expectations had been for …read more

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