QLD Public Sector employment data

The QLD Govt last week finally released their Public Sector employment data for March 2020 (which is to be now a biannual rather than quarterly release); this is the first such release since the June 2019 quarter results. It shows FTE employment across the State increased by 1.7% for the …read more

Regional Building Approvals data shows some improvement in Cairns

The regional Building Approvals data from the ABS (released last week while we were away) allows us to update the Conus Trend series for the QLD regions. While approvals in July across QLD were down 16.2% y/y, the Conus data shows that most of that fall is occurring in the …read more

Labour Account June 2020 shows impact of income support, and Cairns doing better than most

While we’ve been away the ABS have released the June 2020 quarter Labour Account data series which provides a wealth of information. One thing it allows us to do is take a  look at incomes across various industry sectors and how they have changed in the past 12 months. The …read more

Latest Conus modeling

The second quarter GDP release earlier this week (see here for details) allows us to update our Conus model for Australia, Queensland and the various LGAs in our region. Australia’s second quarter GDP fell by 7.0% q/q for a 6.3% y/y decline. Although we got data for the Queensland Q2 …read more

Google data suggests things have started to improve again

After a period of stagnation in the Google Community Mobility data over recent weeks on the back of the Melbourne lock-down we are starting to see some evidence of activity picking up again. The most recent data to 28th August shows Victoria coming off recent lows and all other states …read more

Second quarter GDP falls by 7.0% q/q; QLD domestic economy down 5.9% q/q

As was inevitable the Australian economy contracted by 7.0% q/q in the second quarter of the year (after a 0.3% q/q fall in Q1). This equates to a 6.3% year-on-year fall with the 2019/20 year showing a 0.2% decline after a 2.0% increase in 2018/19. Australia’s run of avoiding recessions …read more

QLD Gross State Product in Q1 fell 0.3%

Yesterday afternoon saw the Queensland Treasury release their estimate of Gross State Product for the March quarter. While the ABS provide estimates for the domestic side of the State’s economy each quarter (and we will see the Q2 data tomorrow along with the annual 2019/20 figure) we have to rely …read more

The recovery is proving a slow slog

Any thoughts of a snap-back, V-shaped recovery in the Australian economy are long gone. With Melbourne only half-way through a second wave, 6 week lock-down the third quarter GDP data (which we will not see until December) may be negative, although our model is still projecting a modest q/q gain, …read more

Payrolls data suggests there should be some improvement coming for Cairns

Today’s release from the ABS of the Payrolls data to the week ending 8th August suggests that we might expect some improvement in Cairns’ Conus/CBC Staff Selection series for August when released later next month. Payrolls data (sourced from the ATO’s Single Touch Payroll system) showed payrolls in the Cairns …read more

Trend unemployment lifts across QLD regions. Cairns hits 8.7%

Not surprisingly, given the poor State performance noted last week (see here for details), the labour markets across most of QLD have deteriorated in July according to the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend. The Trend unemployment rate, which sits at 8.8% in QLD, lifted to 8.7% in Greater Brisbane and 9.0% …read more

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