Updating our model forecasts

As new data becomes available, and the start of retsrictions being eased appears to get earlier, we have updated and expanded the reach of our GDP/GSP/GRP and unemployment forecasts. We now see Australian unemployment peaking at around 11% in the second quarter before falling back below 10% by September.  Things …read more

March labour force data shows the North was in a strong position prior to the COVID-19 impacts

The ABS released their original, unadjusted regional labour force data this morning which allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend series for the QLD SA4 regions. While last week we saw the Trend unemployment rate in Queensland decline to 5.7% (see here for details) today’s data …read more

Updating and expanding our model forecasts; Cairns unemployment to peak close to 14%

Yesterday saw the ABS release the first of their weekly releases looking at payroll and wages data. This new data set, well in advance of the full April Labour Force survey, gives us a first opportunity (albeit with some caveats and reservations) to see the impact of the COVID-19 inspired …read more

Surreal Labour Force data for March sets the scene for April

The March ABS Labour Force survey, the data from which was released this morning, was conducted in the early part of March and as such was never going to capture the full extent of the COVID-19 impacts. Nevertheless the results have surprised the markets and, given what we know has …read more

Tourism data for Feb falls off a cliff

We’ve all known it was coming, but that doesn’t make the short term arrivals data for Feb from the ABS today any less shocking. Short term arrivals into Australia fell 18.7% y/y in Feb; a month in which the full COVID-19 impact was yet to be felt. China obviously felt …read more

Some best-guess COVID-19 impacted forecasts

Now that things on the COVID-19 front appear to have settled down a little, policy initiatives are clearer, and it is looking more and more unlikely that we are going to see significantly more restrictive lock-downs we feel able to take some educated guesses about what the economic fall-out might …read more

International & National Visitor Surveys provide no joy for TNQ

Tourism Research Australia have released their International and National Visitor Surveys for the year to Dec 2019 today (see here). This will be the last tourism data set we see before the impacts of COVID-19 and the travel bans start to show up in the March quarter. Australia saw international …read more

Regional Building Approvals; the North doing better than most

The release this morning by the ABS of their original regional approvals data for Feb allows us to update our own Conus Trend series. What we see is that, while Trend approvals across QLD fell 3.5% y/y, in Greater Brisbane the decline was just 2.1% with the Rest of Queensland …read more

Building Approvals continue to improve…but it’s all down to Victoria

Residential Building Approvals in February were up 19.9% m/m for a 5.8% decline over the year (seasonally adjusted). The less volatile Trend series showed a monthly increases of 1.0% for a decline of 2.5% over the year. While these are rather encouraging numbers (albeit from the pre-COVID-19 era) it should …read more

Public Sector employment in Queensland fell last quarter; second quarter of annual declines

Despite some of commentary that still runs along the lines of “Queensland’s jobs growth is all down to the State Govt hiring“, the latest data from the ABS for the quarter to Feb shows that reality is actually quite the reverse, at least over the course of the past 18 …read more

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