Inflation stays as expected

Dec quarter inflation came in this morning pretty much as people were expecting…that is, weak. CPI rose just 0.5% for the quarter which sees the annual rate drop to 1.8% (from 1.9% previously). The more closely watched measures (at least by the RBA) of core inflation, the trimmed mean and …read more

Core inflation nudges higher

Despite the headline (seasonally adjusted) CPI data coming in a good deal lower than expected, the more significant (so far as potential RBA rate decisions is concerned) core inflation measures nudged very slightly higher in the June quarter. The headline CPI came in as +0.2% q/q for a +1.9% y/y …read more

Gulf opening up between actual and expected inflation

Each month the Melbourne Institute release their Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations. This gives a good indicator where people believe inflation is heading. The chart below compares those expectations (on a quarterly basis) with the actual average core inflation data. What we see is that generally people’s expectations are, on …read more

Cost of Living falls further still

After the release last week of the low CPI numbers, and the RBA’s subsequent decision to cut rates by 25 bps yesterday (see below), it comes as no surprise to see the quarterly Cost of Living Indexes confirming the lack of any inflationary pressure. The COL Indexes are designed to …read more

RBA Minutes confirm easing bias still in place

Any concerns that the market might have had two weeks ago about the May 5th cut to the Cash Rate can be laid to rest by the Minutes of the meeting released this morning (and available here). The take-away message from the Minutes can be found in one of the …read more

Cash Rate cut to 2%; no surprise to anyone

As had been almost universally expected, the RBA today decided to shave another 25 basis points off the official Cash Rate to take it to a new low of 2.0%. In the press release announcing the decision (available here) the Board notes that commodity prices remain low, and CAPEX is …read more

CPI meets expectations but core slightly higher. A$ weakness keeps core above 2%

The headline inflation measure (Consumer Price Index, CPI) for the second quarter has come in bang-on market expectations at +0.2% q/q for a 1.3% increase over the year. The increase comes courtesy of a 2.6% yr/yr increase in non-tradables being offset by a 0.9% yr/yr fall in tradables. The more …read more

RBA cut Cash Rate to 2.25%. Just shows how much we know!

Just a few days ago we posted explaining why we thought the RBA would not be cutting the Cash Rate today (you can read it here), but we have been proven sadly wrong with the RBA cutting 25bps from the Cash Rate to 2.25% at today’s Board meeting. Clearly Terry …read more

Will rates be cut on Tuesday?

Tuesday sees the first of the RBA Board meetings for the year and therefore the first opportunity for the Bank to move on interest rates…if it wants to. There has been much speculation in recent days suggesting that the Bank might be looking to cut the Cash Rate by 25bps …read more

Headline CPI weak but the “core” is stronger

Today saw the release of the Q4 inflation date. ┬áHeadline CPI was up just 0.2% q/q for an annual increase of +1.7% (down from +2.3% in Q3), this was a little weaker than the market had been expecting and falls outside the RBA’s 2-3% target range. However, the measures more …read more

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