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The Dept of Employment released their December quarter Small Area Labour Market (SALM) data today. The SALM estimates are created using data from Centrelink data of people in receipt of Newstart and Youth Allowance by postcode, the ABS regional labour market data at SA4 level and the Census labour force data …read more
An article in the Business Spectator from Adam Carr is suggesting that the labour force data released yesterday is actually much better than it might at first appear. Carr’s argument is that the seasonal adjustment process employed by the ABS (which has certainly been under a cloud recently) is nothing …read more
Today sees the release of the Herron Todd White Cairns Watch report for February. In it we see that HTW are estimating Jan Trend unemployment in Cairns at 8.6%. The headline ABS unadjusted rate was 8.1% and our own Conus Trend came in at 7.5%. As we’ve discussed previously, there …read more
We didn’t have time to look at the youth unemployment data from the ABS on Thursday until today. The headline (and wildly volatile) un-adjusted data for January showed an increase in the unemployment rate of 15-24 year olds at 24.9% (up from 23.9% in Dec), a sharp fall in Participation …read more
Today’s ABS unadjusted regional labour force data for Jan is, as always, wildly volatile. As an example the headline unemployment rate in Mackay in Jan jumped to 10.3% (3rd highest in the state) despite being just 3.2% just 6 months ago. Clearly the Trend analysis is what we need to …read more
A post over the Queensland Economy Watch has raised a question regarding “underutilisation” rates and I hope that Gene will forgive me for jumping in and posting some info here. This data is provide by the ABS on a quarterly basis with the most recent date relating to Nov 2014. …read more
Today saw the release of the ABS labour force data for Jan. What it showed was a drop of 12,200 jobs (seasonally adjusted) and an unemployment rate that jumped from 6.1% to 6.4%. However, even within these wildly volatile seasonally adjusted data are signs that we need to be careful before getting …read more
Just after Christmas The Cairns Post ran an article highlighting the differences between our own Conus Trend and that calculated by Rick Carr at Herron Todd White, when we both came up with some significantly different numbers for the Nov data (see my post on the article here). Today sees …read more
Tuesday sees the first of the RBA Board meetings for the year and therefore the first opportunity for the Bank to move on interest rates…if it wants to. There has been much speculation in recent days suggesting that the Bank might be looking to cut the Cash Rate by 25bps …read more
The release by the ABS of the unadjusted regional labour force data today has, once again, highlighted the extreme volatility of this series. The original data suggests that 3,400 fewer people were in work in Cairns in Dec than in Nov (despite a supposed increase of 500 jobs the previous …read more
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series