Payrolls data suggests things are better in early 2021 than 2020…but beware obvious conclusions!

Data out this week from the ABS for Payrolls suggests that the labour market was actually stronger  in early January this year than it was at the same time last. With a year’s worth of data we can now, for the first time, make year-on-year comparisons of this series. The …read more

Hopefully not too long until ABS reintroduce their employment Trend series

Back in April 2020, as the impacts of the COVID lock-downs took hold across Australia and the labour force data went into free-fall the ABS suspended their Trend series within the Labour Force Survey (and many other data releases). The reason for this was justified by the fact that the …read more

Excellent employment numbers in Nov…although QLD disappoints

Once again the Labour Force data has surprised on the upside in November. While consensus expectations were around an increase in employment of 40,000 (our own projection was somewhat higher at 66,000…see here for details) the official figure showed a jump of 90,000 (almost all of which were in full-time …read more

Weekly Payrolls continue to improve but there are some concerns for Small Business (and Townsville)

The ABS weekly payrolls data (sourced from the ATO Single Touch Payroll system) updated its latest series yesterday and today. What we see is a clear national improvement being driven largely by the recovery in Victoria as the state continues to come out of lock-down. Victoria registered a 1.4% improvement …read more

Labour Account Sept 2020 shows average income surge

Tthe ABS have just released the Sept 2020 quarter Labour Account data series which provides a wealth of information. One thing it allows us to do is take a  look at incomes across various industry sectors and how they have changed in the past 12 months. The data provides us, …read more

Switch to JobKeeper 2.0 hits small business hard

At the end of Sept the JobKeeper stimulus, which had been in place since April, converted to a more stringent set of qualification requirements (as well as decreases to the amounts paid) for the period to the end of Dec at which time there will be another (and probably final) …read more

Regions lead the employment gains in QLD

The original ABS regional labour force data for October out today allows us to update our Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series and what this makes clear is that the recovery in employment seen in Queensland (see here for more details of last week’s State and National data) is being driven …read more

Why does Queensland’s unemployment rate look so high if the labour market is doing so well?

We have been highlighting for some time the fact that the Queensland labour market has benefitted from the positive health outcomes in the State (see here for the most recent October data). This analysis has not been universally agreed with and some commentators have pointed at alternative data sets, such …read more

Jobs roar back. QLD employment growth rate turns positive.

The October Labour Force survey data beat most expectations on the upside with an additional 178,800 employed for the month. This takes the annual rate of jobs loss to just 1.0%. With a strong pick-up in participation (from 64.9 to 65.8) we also see the headline unemployment rate lift to …read more

Youth in Greater Melbourne have been especially badly hit by the lock-down

The ABS regional labour force data released last week (when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend) allows us to see the significant impact that the Victoria, and particularly the Melbourne, lock-down have had on the youth cohort. Since March total employment in Victoria has fallen 218,800 (or 6.4%). …read more

© Conus Business Consultancy Services 2026

Website created by RJ New Designs