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The ABS have released their regional population estimates (up to mid year 2016) today and they show the North of the state lagging recent growth elsewhere. The data is provided at the Local Government Area (LGA) level as well at SA2 and above. Taking the LGA data first…
| LGA | 2016 est | annual change % | decade change % |
| Cairns | 161,932 | +1.0 | +22.8 |
| Douglas | 11,844 | +1.5 | +12.5 |
| Cassowary Coast | 28,721 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Tablelands | 25,054 | +0.3 | +7.9 |
| Mareeba | 22,029 | +0.9 | +17.5 |
| Townsville | 195,914 | +1.0 | +22.8 |
| QLD | 4,843,303 | +1.4 | +20.8 |
While Cairns and Townsville have outpaced QLD growth over the past decade, that out-performance has now ceased with growth just 70% of the state average in the past year. The Cassowary Coast has finally returned to positive territory (although only just!) while the Tablelands Regional Council area has also been weak.
If we break the Far North (i.e. Cairns SA4) data down even further we can see quite a diverse range of outcomes across the region.
| SA4 | SA3 | SA2 | est | change annual % | change decade % |
| Cairns | 246,110 | +0.8 | +17.3 | ||
| Cairns-North | 53,709 | +1.7 | +31.2 | ||
| Brinsmead | 5,666 | +0.7 | +8.9 | ||
| Clifton Beach – Kewarra Beach | 11,642 | +2.1 | +40.5 | ||
| Freshwater – Stratford | 4,058 | +1.0 | +10.5 | ||
| Redlynch | 12,733 | +1.3 | +35.0 | ||
| Trinity Beach – Smithfield | 13,216 | +3.2 | +60.4 | ||
| Yorkeys Knob – Machans Beach | 6,394 | +0.6 | +5.0 | ||
| Cairns-South | 104,790 | +0.7 | +20.1 | ||
| Bentley Park | 8,458 | +0.2 | +50.4 | ||
| Cairns City | 11,203 | +1.3 | +31.7 | ||
| Earlville – Bayview Heights | 8,721 | +0.5 | +4.1 | ||
| Edmonton | 11,224 | +1.2 | +35.8 | ||
| Gordonvale – Trinity | 8,890 | +0.5 | +28.3 | ||
| Kanimbla – Mooroobool | 10,184 | +1.4 | +15.1 | ||
| Manoora | 6,172 | -0.1 | +5.9 | ||
| Manunda | 5,450 | +0.1 | +3.6 | ||
| Mount Sheridan | 8,706 | +0.2 | +18.5 | ||
| Westcourt – Bungalow | 7,012 | +1.0 | +23.0 | ||
| White Rock | 4,887 | +0.3 | +22.6 | ||
| Whitfield – Edge Hill | 8,580 | +0.3 | +2.4 | ||
| Woree | 5,303 | +1.7 | +25.5 | ||
| Innisfail-Cassowary Coast | 34,843 | +0.1 | +0.4 | ||
| Babinda | 4,134 | -0.5 | -5.1 | ||
| Innisfail | 9,534 | -0.2 | -1.3 | ||
| Johnstone | 7,704 | -0.7 | -0.3 | ||
| Tully | 10,779 | +1.1 | +2.7 | ||
| Yarrabah | 2,689 | +0.1 | +9.0 | ||
| Port Douglas-Daintree | 11,787 | +1.5 | +12.4 | ||
| Daintree | 6,277 | +0.9 | +2.5 | ||
| Port Douglas | 5,510 | +2.3 | +26.3 | ||
| Tablelands (East)-Kuranda | 40,981 | +0.5 | +12.7 | ||
| Atherton | 11,050 | +1.0 | +15.5 | ||
| Herberton | 5,706 | -0.4 | +3.0 | ||
| Kuranda | 4,766 | +0.3 | +25.9 | ||
| Malanda – Yungaburra | 8,306 | -0.2 | +2.3 | ||
| Mareeba | 11,153 | +1.1 | +19.3 | ||
Cairns North, and in particular Trinity Beach, Clifton Beach and Redlynch, has been the stand-out growth area over the past decade, with Trinity and Clifton Beach still growing faster than average last year. In the south, Edmonton and Gordonvale have seen rapid growth over the past 10 years.
Outside of Cairns, Port Douglas has done well over the decade and continues to outperform the region as a whole. In the Cassowary Coast the only area to see growth at all over the 10 years was Tully (which includes Tully, Mission Beach and Cardwell) with the areas around Innisfail all falling. (Although Yarrabah is in the Innisfail-Cassowary Coast SA3 it is not in the Cassowary Coast Regional Council area. Babinda, likewise, is in the Cairns Regional Council area.)
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March 30th, 2017 at 11:40 pm
Very interesting Pete, for those of us who thought Cairns would overtake Townsville over a period of time these figures prove otherwise, if both cities are growing at exactly the same rate, and Townsville starting at a larger base, means that a this is unlikely to occur, in fact Townsville would extend the gap in actual numbers.
March 31st, 2017 at 1:55 am
Glen, yes, certainly true at this stage. These figures are estimates which will be re-based once we have the 2016 Census data to confirm…that might change things if growth in Townsville has been less than the projections expected. We’ll find out soon enough. Thanks for the comment.