Chinese New Year impact seen in slowing arrivals data for Feb

The Short Term Arrivals and Departures data for Feb released this morning seems to reflect the impact of the Chinese New Year falling in early Feb. Clearly many Chinese arrivals were in the country before the actual date and showed up in the strong Jan numbers. February sees a reversal …read more

Arrivals & Departures data shows China still on the up-and-up

As the ABS quickly play catch-up with the Overseas Arrivals & Departures data we see the March data released today. Yesterday we also saw the release of the TRA International Visitor Survey for the final quarter of last year (see here for commentary). We’re now starting to get a much …read more

Very strong jobs numbers, but focus on revisions and the Trend and it’s less exciting

The ABS jobs data for May has surprised on the upside. New jobs created (according to the headline seasonally adjusted series) were at 42,000; well in advance of estimates that centred around 12,000. However, what has been less commented upon is the fact that the April decline (originally slated as …read more

RBA cut Cash Rate to 2.25%. Just shows how much we know!

Just a few days ago we posted explaining why we thought the RBA would not be cutting the Cash Rate today (you can read it here), but we have been proven sadly wrong with the RBA cutting 25bps from the Cash Rate to 2.25% at today’s Board meeting. Clearly Terry …read more

US jobs sends A$ lower

The release overnight of the US jobs report for September has seen the A$ fall almost a full US cent. The non-farm payrolls for Sept saw a strong increase of 248,000 (above expectations) combined with large upward revisions to the data for July and August (combined revisions added another 69,000). The …read more

How much does a weaker A$ help tourism?

There is a well held belief that if the Aussie $ continues to weaken that we will see direct positive flow-through into the tourism industry. It’s a belief that is founded on some sound, and apparently reasonable, assumptions based on the fact that as the A$ falls travel for non-A$ …read more

Unemployment rate jumps; QLD looks awful

Today’s labour force data from the ABS for July is a shocker. Jobs, which had been expected to rise by about 12,000, actually fell 300 (and June’s increase was revised lower to +14.9). The headline seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% (from 6.0% in June); the increase slightly mitigated …read more

Fed taper continues as US growth picks up

Overnight the Fed have announced that their tapering of bond buying will continue, with another $10bn per month knocked off the plans. The Fed will now be buying just $25bn per month with the policy set to come to an end (as planned) in October. The announcement was no surprise …read more

Inflation rate ticks higher

Data released this morning by the ABS shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation ticked up to 3% for the year to June (from +2.9% in Q1). Data for the second quarter shows that prices rose 0.5% after a 0.6% increase in Q1. While the headline data …read more

Lest there is any doubt…what Stevens thinks about the A$

At a speech in Hobart today RBA Governor Glenn Stevens very clearly laid out his current thoughts on the strength of the A$. “But lest there be any uncertainty about this, let me be clear, again, that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards. There is little doubt that …read more

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