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The ABS release of their original regional labour force September data allows us to update our own Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trends for Queensland; and they show us a positive picture for Cairns.
The national and state-wide data released last week (see commentary here) saw the headline unemployment rates fall on the back of declines in participation and modest employment increases. It is therefore perhaps not that surprising to see something similar being reflected in the Trends across Greater Brisbane and the Rest of Queensland. Greater Brisbane saw Trend employment increase only marginally (+500), there was a drop in participation and the Trend unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%. In the Rest of Queensland Trend employment grew by 1,400, participation also dipped and the Trend unemployment rate fell to 5.9%.
Over the course of the past 12 months Trend employment in Greater Brisbane is up just 10,600 (at a rate of 0.9% pa) while the Rest of Queensland has added 28,500 to Trend employment (at a rate of 2.4% pa). However, when we consider the full/part-time split things look quite different; Greater Brisbane has added 31,300 to full-time positions while the Rest of Queensland has seen growth of just 7,500. Trend employment growth in the regions is being driven by part-time while in Greater Brisbane full-time employment is strong as part-time positions disappear.
In our own region we see an unambiguously strong set of Trend numbers for Cairns. Trend employment grew 1,200 and is now up 6,000 in the past 5 months. Annual employment growth has finally turned positive (up 1,000 at a rate of 0.8%). Unlike at the national and state level, Cairns actually saw Trend participation edge slightly higher in September and, despite that, managed to maintain a Trend unemployment rate of just 5.8% (after August was revised lower). The Trend median search for a job has also fallen, and now sits below the national (17 weeks) and Queensland (19 weeks) at just 14 weeks.
Another positive for the region is that, unlike the Rest of Queensland, Trend employment growth in Cairns has been focused on the full-time sector. Of the 6,000 newly employed over the past 5 months 5,500 of them have come in the full-time sector.
Youth unemployment now sits below the Queensland level at 11.3% despite he sector losing 200 jobs this month. Over the course of the past 6 months the youth sector has added 1,600 to Trend employment.
To our South things have also improved, although there remains a long road ahead. Trend employment in Townsville increased by another 200 in September and is now up 3,400 over the course of the year (at a rate of 3.1%). However, despite that the Trend unemployment rate remains high at 7.9%, the youth unemployment rate is 14.9% and the median search for a job has lengthened to 42 weeks (second longest in the State). A bright point in the Townsville data is that all the employment increases for the year have been in the full-time sector with part-time employment actually dipping by 600. Nevertheless, the labour market in Townsville remains a concern particularly given the pace of Trend employment growth has slowed sharply in recent months.
The full data set of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend for Queensland is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data but please ensure you acknowledge Conus/CBC Staff Selection when you do so.
Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend QLD – Sept 2018
We are proud to have CBC Staff Selection as supporters of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend Employment and Jobseeker data series