Trend employment dips in Cairns but in general the regions are doing well

September Labour Force data, released by the ABS this morning, allows us to update the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series for the regions of Queensland.

We see that while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate across QLD is 4.9% (see details from last week) in Greater Brisbane it is 5.5% (Trend 5.8%) while in the Rest of QLD just 4.2% (Trend 4.6%).

At the regional level we prefer to use the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend, rather than seasonally adjusted, series since the Trend is so much less volatile. However, doing so does mean we must be careful comparing regional Trend data with State-wide seasonally adjusted.

In Cairns the Trend unemployment rate sits at 4.2% despite another 4oo dropping out of the employment number. Once again we see a decrease in participation and another 500 people leaving the labour force this month. It is this decrease in participation, rather than employment growth, that is manifesting in the low unemployment rate. Nevertheless, it is encouraging to see the fact that over the year full-time employment is up almost 10,000 while part-time employment has fallen sharply.

In Townsville things continue to improve with another 100 added to the Trend employment and the unemployment rate sitting at just 4.1%; even more impressive considering the 2.3 bbps increase in participation seen in the region in the past 12 months.

Since the pre-COVID peak the Trend labour force in Cairns has fallen by 10,000. Compare this to Townsville where the Trend labour force is up 5,300 over the same period.

The full Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend & s.a. series is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data but kindly acknowledge Conus/CBC Staff Selection when you do so.

Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Employment Trend & s.a. QLD – Sept 2021

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