Will rates be cut on Tuesday?

Tuesday sees the first of the RBA Board meetings for the year and therefore the first opportunity for the Bank to move on interest rates…if it wants to. There has been much speculation in recent days suggesting that the Bank might be looking to cut the Cash Rate by 25bps …read more

Headline CPI weak but the “core” is stronger

Today saw the release of the Q4 inflation date.  Headline CPI was up just 0.2% q/q for an annual increase of +1.7% (down from +2.3% in Q3), this was a little weaker than the market had been expecting and falls outside the RBA’s 2-3% target range. However, the measures more …read more

Unemployment rate jumps; QLD looks awful

Today’s labour force data from the ABS for July is a shocker. Jobs, which had been expected to rise by about 12,000, actually fell 300 (and June’s increase was revised lower to +14.9). The headline seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% (from 6.0% in June); the increase slightly mitigated …read more

RBA leaves rates on hold

As had been universally expected, the RBA have left the Cash Rate on hold at 2.5% at today’s meeting. The full statement (see here) is little changed from last month. There is still reference to a “strong expansion in housing construction”, the fact that “the Bank still expects growth to …read more

No surprise…no change

No one was in the least surprised when the RBA left the Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5% (again) at today’s Board meeting. The wording of the Media Release (available here) also gave no hints as to any change in the current “steady as she goes” stance. As has become usual, …read more

Comm Bank and ANZ both positive on growth

Back from a busy few busy days in Cairns which included two economics breakfasts; one yesterday with Michael Workman from Comm Bank (hosted by the AICD) and the other this morning with Warren Hogan from ANZ (hosted by Advance Cairns). Both painted fairly positive pictures for Australian growth in the …read more

US Q1 GDP almost at a standstill but Fed continue to taper

Overnight the first (of three) estimates of US GDP growth in the first quarter came in well below expectations at +0.1% annualised (down from +2.6% in the previous quarter). While markets had expected a slowdown caused by the severe winter weather, the actual result was weaker than most had anticipated. Nevertheless, …read more

Surprise jump in Inflation puts focus back on rates

The markets have been surprised this morning by a sharp uptick in the rate of inflation. Headline CPI rose 0.8% in the final quarter of 2013 for an annual increase of 2.7% (up from 2.2% the previous quarter). The more closely followed “core” inflation of trimmed mean and weighted median …read more

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