Why the ABS have suspended many Trend series…an example

As the extreme impacts on a raft of economic data collected by them became clear the ABS, in many instances, have suspended the production of their Trend estimates. The reason the ABS have provided is along the lines of the following (which relates specifically to the Labour Force data but …read more

No surprise from the inflation report

The ABS have released their quarterly measure of inflation pressures for the second quarter this year; and it contains no surprises. Inflation remains muted (+0.4% q/q and +2.1% y/y) with “core” inflation somewhat lower at +0.5% q/q and just +1.9% y/y. This result is very much as the markets had …read more

QLD industry sectors in past 10 and 5 years

I love the charting that my friends at CCIQ have done previously looking at the relative scale (in Gross Value Added and employment terms) of the various industry sectors in Queensland. The Conus Trend Industry Jobs data has been one of the inputs used so, with some help from the …read more

Building Approvals point to Dwelling Construction turning the corner in QLD by end of 2018

Today saw the release of the Building Activity data for the second quarter of 2017 and it shows dwellings under construction falling in QLD (in particular unit construction)…see the chart below from Stephen Gosarevski, Economist at CCIQ. But as readers will know, the trend in residential building approvals in QLD …read more

Pete on radio 4CA this morning talking about our submission to the Productivity Commission’s Transitioning Regional Economies report

Pete was on radio 4CA this morning with John MacKenzie talking about his submission to the Productivity Commission’s Transitioning Regional Economies report (you can download the full submission from the PC website here). You can listen to the interview below.

Cuts to ABS funding likely to make better regional data a pipe-dream

One of the less publicised elements of the 2017-18 Budget released on Tuesday was the decision to slash funding to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Tucked away in Budget Paper 4; Agency Resourcing is a reduction in funding for the agency of some $218m (33.6%) for the next financial …read more

Budget kicks the can of structural repair down the road

Among all the Budget 2017-18 announcements and trumpeted measures (of which Nick Behrens from QEAS provides as good a summary as any here) the most interesting (disappointing?) chart for me comes in Budget Paper 1, Statement 3 regarding the Structural Budget Balance. As the Budget acknowledges; “Restoring the structural integrity …read more

One for the economics geeks: What’s the last 22 years of unemployment and inflation data in Australia tell us about NAIRU and the Phillips Curve?

Apologies to any others, but if you’re not a dyed in the wool economics tragic read no further. Back in uni days (over 30 years ago now) the old Phillips Curve theory was still being tossed around (although with modifications from the 1950’s original) and it’s always been something I’ve …read more

Some good news for small business but the Budget puts off any attempt at fiscal repair

The 2015-16 Budget announced last night contains some welcome initiatives for small business. The reduction in the tax rate for small business to 28.5% will actually impact only a few companies, so the 5% tax discount (up to a max of $1,000 per individual) for small non-incorporated businesses is perhaps …read more

Measuring GDP….a new thinking

A great friend of ours, Graham Turner, runs an independent economic consultancy (GFC Economics) in London. Graham founded GFC in 1999 after many years working as an economist with various international investment banks in the City. Graham has written a number of highly regarded books, the most recent of which …read more

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