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The release by the ABS of the original regional building approvals data for August allows us to update our Conus Trend series for regional Queensland. In a month in which Queensland Trend approvals were unchanged (see here for last week’s commentary) we see a slightly different picture emerging between Greater Brisbane and the rest of the state. The Conus Trend for Greater Brisbane declined for the sixth consecutive month to sit below 2,000 (a,993) for the first time in 17 months; this represents a 3.1% decline since a year ago. The Rest of Queensland saw Trend approvals lift for the third consecutive month to now sit at 1,482, an increase of 0.2% from the previous year.
Considering the state by SA4 regions we see the Conus Trend has Mackay as the stand-out region with Trend approvals up 66.0% from a year earlier, although they remain well below previous highs. In comparison Fitzroy sees Trend approvals having declined 37.7% from a year earlier.
In our own region Cairns Trend approvals fell again (the Trend continues to correct and revise after the mass approvals from Nova City in April) to 98 which is now 0.8% below a year earlier. It would appear that the shock of the Nova City approvals has now washed through the series and we have settled at a more “normal” level for the time being. As yet there is scant sign of a residential building recovery on the back of the improving confidence in the region (pages 87-91 of the latest Tropic Magazine are worth reading in this regard).
Approvals in Townsville continue to slide and are now 39.2% below their level of last year. The chart below makes the scale of the collapse in Townsville clear when we consider that a decade ago Trend approvals in the region were running at about 250 per month; today that figure is 46.
If we consider the SA4 regions in more detail (by Local Government Area), we see that the Conus Trend in Cairns Regional Council (incl Douglas Shire) sits at 67, down from 72 in July and up just 4.2% from a year earlier. The Cassowary Coast sits on 6 (down 16.4% y/y) while the Tablelands (incl Mareeba Shire) is at 18 (down 18.4% y/y). Clearly the small decline in the Cairns SA4 region is being driven by drops in approvals numbers outside of Cairns City itself.
As we would expect Townsville City Council remains weak, although there might appear to be some early signs of a bottoming-out. Trend approvals remain 35.6% below their level of a year earlier.
The full set of Conus Trend Regional Building Approvals for Queensland is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data but kindly acknowledge Conus when you do so.
Conus Trend Regional Building Approvals QLD – Aug 2018
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