After a brief uptick in Dec JobSeeker numbers continue to fall in Jan

Data from the Dept of Social Services released today shows that JobSeeker numbers (incl YA (other)) fell in January, continuing a pattern that had been briefly interrupted in December. The original DSS data showed JobSeekers had fallen by 102,758 (or 7%) between Dec and Jan. Since January 2020 this was a 204% increase, although as we have previously noted (see note at the end of this post from June 2020) this ignores the fact that ‘jobseekers’ were being counted very differently prior to March 2020 and the actual increase that this data represents is in fact closer to a 63% lift.

Looking at the original data through the lens of the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend series, and adjusting to include all Newstart and YA (other) recipients prior to March 2020, we see that the Trend number across Australia in Jan 2021 is up 63.3% from Jan 2020.

Unfortunately at the state and regional level the total number receiving Newstart and YA (other) prior to March 2020 are not available. We must rely on the ‘jobseeker’ data prior to that which only counted on average about 47% of total recipients.

In Queensland we see JobSeeker numbers fell 5.2% for the month and were up 188% for the year (the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend shows that increase at 134.5%).

In Cairns original data showed a fall of 5.6% m/m and a rise of 142% y/y (Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend +107.6% y/y) while Townsville also fell 5.6% m/m and was up 115% y/y (Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend +90.7% y/y).

The complete Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend & s.a. data set for the QLD regions is available for download below. Please feel free to use this data but kindly acknowledge Conus/CBC Staff Selection when  you do so.

Conus/CBC Staff Selection Regional Jobseeker Trend & s.a. QLD – Jan 2021


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