Regional Trend shows approvals slowdown is all in the regions

Posted on August 7, 2018 by Pete Faulkner - Building Approvals, Cairns, QLD, Townsville, Uncategorized

Today saw the release of the ABS original regional building approvals data for June. Last week we saw the Trend data for Queensland showing a 5.2% decline for the year; today’s data (when seen through the Conus Trend series) confirms that this slowdown is all due to the regions.

For June 2018 the Conus Trend shows residential building approvals in Greater Brisbane at 2,096 which is a decline of 0.1% for the year. In the Rest of Queensland approvals now sit at 1,364 which represents a 12.2% decline from the same time last year. Regional areas that have seen particularly significant declines over the year are Sunshine Coast (down 25.9% y/y), Toowoomba (down 22.3% y/y) and Townsville (down 37.9% y/y).

In our part of the world the Cairns SA4 region saw Trend approvals dip slightly to 124 (this after a spike in unit approvals a few months ago saw the Trend initially surge and is now starting to settle) which still represents a 19.7% increase from last year. Townsville has fallen to 49 Trend approvals in June, the lowest since the series began back in 2001, and is down 37.9% for the year.

When we consider the broader Cairns region at the Local Government Area level we see Conus Trend approvals in the Cairns Regional Council (incl Douglas Shire) at 91 (+45.2% y/y after the units surge a few months ago), Cassowary Coast Regional Council at 6 (down 19.0% y/y) and Tablelands Regional Council (incl Mareeba Shire) at 19 (down 3.8% y/y). Townsville City Council Trend approvals are down to 41, a fall of 42.5% y/y.

Over the course of the 2017-18 fiscal year Cairns Regional Council saw original approvals increase by a total of 80%, Cassowary Coast by 61% and Tablelands by 13%. The Townsville City Council total for the year fell 21%. Perhaps more alarmingly still, since 2014-15 approvals have fallen more than 58% in Townsville from 1,499 to just 632 in 2017-18! Cairns has seen completely the opposite with a 58% increase over the same period from 753 to 1,188.

The complete Conus Trend data-set for the SA4 regions in Queensland is available for download below. Please feel free to use this (for non-commercial purposes) but kindly acknowledge Conus when you do so.

Conus Trend Regional Building Approvals QLD – June 2018