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The first quarter of 2018 has seen price inflation remain very muted, and outside of the RBA’s inflation target range. The headline CPI data showed a 0.4% q/q increase for +1.9% y/y. This was broadly in line with, or at the bottom end of, market expectations. The RBA preferred “core” …read more
Today’s release of the final quarter 2017 inflation data was broadly in line with market expectations and therefore met by something of a collective yawn by watchers and traders alike. The headline CPI rose 0.6% q/q for a y/y increase of 1.9% (up from +1.8% y/y in the previous quarter). …read more
The ABS release of Q3 CPI this morning has come in slightly below market expectations with core inflation remaining stuck just below the bottom of the RBA target range. CPI posted a 0.6% q/q increase for the Sept quarter (market expectations had centred around +0.8%) which meant year-on-year inflation fell …read more
Today’s Cost of Living Indexes for the second quarter show that it continues to be those in employment who are being impacted by “cost of living pressures” the least; perhaps just as well given the slow pace of wages growth although worth noting that wages growth in the first quarter …read more
Despite the headline (seasonally adjusted) CPI data coming in a good deal lower than expected, the more significant (so far as potential RBA rate decisions is concerned) core inflation measures nudged very slightly higher in the June quarter. The headline CPI came in as +0.2% q/q for a +1.9% y/y …read more
In line with market expectations, the inflation data released by the ABS today shows CPI back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range. For the March quarter headline CPI rose by 0.5% for an annual increase of 2.1% (up from 1.5% in the previous quarter). The RBA’s preferred “core” measures of …read more
The ABS data for inflation in the third quarter shows the headline CPI number edged slightly higher by 0.7% q/q for a year on year increase of 1.3% (up from 1% in June). However, the two core inflation measures preferred by the RBA (trimmed mean and weighted median) were up …read more
After the release last week of the record low headline CPI numbers for Q2 (see here), and the RBA’s subsequent decision to cut rates by 25 bps yesterday, it comes as no surprise to see the quarterly Cost of Living Indexes confirming the lack of any inflationary pressure. The COL Indexes …read more
Each month the Melbourne Institute release their Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations. This gives a good indicator where people believe inflation is heading. The chart below compares those expectations (on a quarterly basis) with the actual average core inflation data. What we see is that generally people’s expectations are, on …read more
Apologies to any others, but if you’re not a dyed in the wool economics tragic read no further. Back in uni days (over 30 years ago now) the old Phillips Curve theory was still being tossed around (although with modifications from the 1950’s original) and it’s always been something I’ve …read more
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