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As expected, the Australian economy once again avoided a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) with a better-than-expected increase GDP of 1.1% for the 4th quarter of 2016. This took year on year growth to 2.4% (up from an upwardly revised +1.9% in Q3) for an annual growth …read more
A new year, and a time to reflect on where we stand in Queensland. And as far as the pollies are concerned (while Parliament is yet to return) the emphasis appears, as ever, to be on spinning the data to make whatever point they wish. In today’s Australian we see …read more
Today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) downgrades Treasury’s forecasts of economic growth and increases the size of fiscal deficits; but it sticks to the projection in the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) of the budget returning to surplus in 2021-21 (albeit a revised down, razor thin surplus). The …read more
The Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review released this afternoon (download here) will have made happy reading for QLD Treasurer Curtis Pitt. Surging coal royalties have resulted in a better than expected surplus and allowed the government to “splash some cash” ahead of a probable election next year. Although the fiscal …read more
There is a certain narrative doing the rounds that although the Queensland economy is recovering it is doing so largely on the basis of booming resources exports and government spending; that the private domestic sector is struggling to add to growth. There is unquestionably a valid point being made about …read more
Today saw the release of the GDP data for the third quarter. After some weak data from net exports the markets had been expecting a figure around a 0.1/0.2% decline. The result came in worse than expected at -0.5% q/q for an annual increase over the year of +2.5% or a …read more
A few weeks ago we discussed the Queensland Treasury quarterly estimates of Gross State Product (GSP) and noted that they reflected a strong 3.3% growth for the 2015/16 year (see here). Yesterday saw the ABS release their own (annual) estimates for 2015/16 and these showed Queensland with just a 2.0% …read more
Data released last week by the Queensland Treasury shows the state’s economy grew 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016; the fastest pace of growth since Q1 2012. While Queensland Treasury release their Gross State Product data on a quarterly basis the ABS only do so annually (and we must …read more
Today saw the release of the GDP data for the second quarter. Markets had been expecting a figure around +0.4-+0.6% and the result came in at +0.5% q/q for an annual increase over the financial year 2015-16 of +2.9% and +3.3% y/y. Being broadly in line with expectations the Forex …read more
The first quarter GDP data released this morning has come in well above expectations largely on the back of export growth. The markets had been looking for seasonally adjusted GDP growth of around 0.7 – 0.8% q/q which would have given an annual rate of about 2.9%. The actual result …read more
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