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The success of Northern Australia’s development hinges on effectively harnessing its human capital. Our research reveals a critical, and often underestimated, factor in this equation: the dramatic increase in female labour force participation across the region over the past decade. This isn’t merely a statistical anomaly; it’s a powerful trend reshaping our labour markets and presenting both unique challenges and significant opportunities for growth. This post, prepared to supplement our presentation at the Developing Northern Australia Conference in Cairns in July 2025, explores the drivers behind this surge in female engagement and outlines the strategic considerations necessary to ensure this transformation contributes maximally to the North’s economic vitality.
The labour market is rarely static, yet some transformations prove more consequential than others. In 2019, before COVID redefined our conception of work, we began documenting a phenomenon that would only accelerate in subsequent years: the rising tide of female labour force participation across Northern Australia.
Initially, our interest was spurred by a relatively straightforward economic question: how do changes in the Participation Rate (PR) impact the Unemployment Rate (UR)? The mechanics seemed clear enough—when more people enter the labour force (increasing PR), any decline in unemployment becomes mathematically more difficult to achieve. Yet behind this economic relationship lay a more profound question that commanded our attention: what was driving these participation changes at a regional level?
This inquiry led us to develop an analytical framework that, in the years since COVID, has illuminated a remarkable trend: the dramatic effect that increasing female labour market engagement has had across Northern Australia’s economy. The results are not merely statistically significant—they represent a fundamental restructuring of regional labour markets with far-reaching implications for policy, infrastructure, and social services.
Before examining our findings, a brief methodological clarification is necessary. The Participation Rate represents the percentage of working-age population (15 years and older) who are actively participating in the labour force—either employed or actively seeking employment. While changes in PR indicate shifts in workforce engagement, they reveal nothing of the underlying causes.
To properly understand labour force structure, we must disentangle two distinct factors influencing PR:
We applied a methodological framework originally developed by Julie L. Hotchkiss in her 2009 paper for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, “Decomposing Changes in the Aggregate Labor Force Participation Rate.” This approach specifies changes in aggregate PR as a population-weighted average of changes to participation rates across different age groups (or genders), expressed mathematically as:
Where LFPR represents the Labour Force Participation Rate, i denotes the age groups, and p indicates the percentage of working age population. Similar disaggregation of the changes across genders allows us to split out the aggregate change to PR into two specific effects for each gender.
The Propensity Effect can result from various factors—discouraged workers withdrawing during economic downturns, extended education participation among youth, or retirement timing shifts among older workers. Meanwhile, the Demographic Effect reflects population composition changes, such as the aging phenomenon observed across much of the developed world, which naturally lowers aggregate participation as more individuals enter age brackets with traditionally lower engagement.
To facilitate this analysis at SA4 regional levels, we constructed Conus Trend Participation Rates for specific regional age cohorts (15-24 years, 25-44 years, and 45+ years) and genders where official ABS data was insufficient. This approach allowed us to identify not only how participation has evolved, but which factors have most significantly driven these changes within regional areas of Northern Australia.
The results are unequivocal: the single most dominant driver of participation change across Australia has been the increased propensity of women to enter the labour force. This effect, already significant before 2020, has been amplified by the pandemic-induced paradigm shift toward remote work and flexible working arrangements—changes that have disproportionately benefited women’s workforce participation.
Examining the decade between November 2014 and November 2024*, we observe that:
Put simply, virtually all of Australia’s participation growth over the past decade can be attributed to women’s increased labour market engagement.
Queensland has witnessed a similar, though slightly less pronounced trend. State-wide participation increased by 1.7 ppts, with the female propensity effect accounting for 1.8 ppts of this change.
When we focus specifically on Northern Australia, the magnitude of this transformation becomes even more striking:
In Cairns, female participation surged by 6.7 ppts over the decade. The female propensity effect contributed 4.7 ppts to the region’s 5.8 ppts overall participation increase—representing over 80% of total growth.
Townsville exhibited an even more remarkable pattern. Female participation increased by 7.3 ppts, with the female propensity effect contributing 7.1 ppts to a total participation change of 3.7 ppts. This seemingly paradoxical relationship—where the contribution exceeds the total effect—reflects countering demographic factors that were more than offset by women’s increased workforce engagement.
The Northern Territory presents a more complex picture, though one where female participation remains pivotal. Despite a 1.1 ppts decline in overall participation, female participation increased by 3.3 ppts, with the female propensity effect contributing a positive 1.9 ppts—effectively moderating what would otherwise have been a more significant overall decline.
| Changes Nov 2014 – Nov 2024 ppts | |||
| Total PR | Female PR | Contribution from Female Propensity Effect | |
| Australia | +2.4 | +4.3 | +2.2 |
| Queensland | +1.7 | +3.5 | +1.8 |
| Cairns | +5.8 | +6.7 | +4.7 |
| Townsville | +3.7 | +7.3 | +7.1 |
| NT | -1.1 | +3.3 | +1.9 |
Two key factors appear to have driven this fundamental shift in female labour participation.
The extraordinary expansion of the Healthcare & Social Assistance sector has played a decisive role. While total Australian employment grew by 25.2% over the decade, employment in Healthcare & Social Assistance surged by 61.3%, growing to represent 15.6% of all Australian employment. With women comprising more than three-quarters of this sector’s workforce, the implications for female participation are profound: of the 861,000 new positions created in the sector, 609,000 were filled by women.
Similar patterns emerge in education, another female-dominated sector (approximately 70% female), where employment growth (38.8%) substantially outpaced the national average (25.2%).
Regional variations amplify this effect:
| Total Employment | H’Care Employment | |||||
| Nov-25 | Decade change ppts | Nov-25 | Decade change ppts | |||
| Female % | Persons | Female | Female % | Persons | Female | |
| Australia | +47.8 | +25.2 | +29.9 | +75.5 | +61.3 | +55.4 |
| Queensland | +48.6 | +28.3 | +32.9 | +76.5 | +55.9 | +51.4 |
| Cairns | +49.5 | +31.2 | +44.7 | +80.5 | +117.8 | +140.0 |
| Townsville | +50.2 | +20.0 | +18.6 | +74.2 | +56.8 | +48.0 |
| NT | +50.3 | +6.3 | +16.7 | +69.6 | +71.9 | +62.4 |
While difficult to quantify precisely, the impact of increased workplace flexibility—particularly following COVID—appears substantial. Women, who continue to shoulder a disproportionate share of family care responsibilities, have demonstrably benefited from remote work options and flexible arrangements. The immediate post-pandemic period saw female participation jump from approximately 61% to 63% nationally, while male participation remained essentially unchanged at around 71%. This timing strongly suggests that the WFH revolution has been a critical enabler of increased female workforce engagement.
The extraordinary increase in female participation across Northern Australia presents both challenges and opportunities that demand thoughtful policy responses. Three primary areas warrant particular attention:
The fundamental restructuring of Northern Australia’s labour market through increased female participation represents one of the most significant economic developments of the past decade. This transformation—driven by structural industry shifts and amplified by pandemic-induced workplace flexibility—has profound implications for regional economic development, infrastructure planning, and social policy.
As Northern Australia continues to evolve, recognising and supporting this participation revolution will be essential to maintaining economic vitality and ensuring that the benefits of increased workforce engagement are fully realised.
* Note: November 2024 data have been used throughout this analysis as the most recent reliable dataset. Regional ABS Detailed Labour Force quarterly data for February 2025 was compromised due to North Queensland flooding, preventing comparable regional analysis. National and state-level data since November 2024 has not altered the central findings presented here.
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