SALM data gives us a look at the finer grain local detail

Posted on February 10, 2020 by Pete Faulkner - Cairns, CCRC, Jobs, SALM, Townsville, Uncategorized

The release by the Dept of Employment of their Small Area Labour Market (SALM) data for the September 2019 quarter, when seen through the lens of the Conus Trend SALM series, gives us our only genuine look at the detail of the labour market at the finer grain level of SA2, SA3 and Local Government Area.

The headline data is presented by the Dept as a smoothed 4 quarters average at both Local Govt Area and SA2 level. However, hidden in the release is the original, unsmoothed, data and from that we create the Conus Trend series for all the QLD LGAs as well as the SA2 and SA3 areas within the broader Cairns region.

The SALM estimates use data from ABS Labour Force, estimated regional population estimates and Census along with Dept of Social Services Centrelink data in an effort to “produce small area labour market estimates that reflect the regional disparities of the Centrelink data, while being consistent with the ABS Labour Force Survey estimates.”

This quarter’s data needs to be seen in the context of the somewhat slowing labour market that we were witnessing in the Cairns region from about mid-2019 onwards (as evidenced by the Conus/CBC Staff Selection Trend unemployment rate for Cairns moving up to 5.8% by Sept and up futher to 6.2% as at Jan). This SALM data-set, while useful for the finer detail it provides, is unfortunately very lagged. While the Conus Trend SALM series generally are still showing labour market improvements in the Sept quarter, we can be confident that future revisions will confirm the deterioration we now know was already underway at that time.

At the SA3 level we see the Conus Trend SALM unemployment rates in the various areas within the broader Cairns SA4 region are (with previous quarter);

Cairns-North 2.2% (2.2%)
Cairns-South 4.9% (5.0%)
Innisfail-Cassowary Coast 6.4% (6.5%)
Port DouglasDaintree 4.2% (4.1%)
Tablelands-Kuranda 6.2% (6.0%)

When considering the Local Govt Areas in our region (with previous quarter);

Cairns Regional Council 3.7% (3.9%)
Cassowary Coast 5.8% (5.6%)
Douglas Shire 4.2% (4.2%)
Tablelands Regional 4.3% (4.5%)
Mareeba Shire 7.8% (7.7%)
Yarrabah 50.0% (51.2%)
Townsville City 8.1% (7.5%)
Charters Towers 10.6% (9.7%)

It’s telling to note that about a decade ago Townsville City Council and Charters Towers Council (which together basically constitute the Townsville SA4 region) had the two lowest rates in the North; today they are the two highest.