Public Sector employment grows; but at a slower pace

Posted on July 24, 2019 by Pete Faulkner - Cairns, Jobs, QLD, Townsville, Uncategorized

The release of the March quarter Public Sector work force data shows that the Government’s fiscal principle of keeping full-time equivalent Public Sector employment growth to that of population growth has not been met. However, we need also to note that the Coaldrake Review recommneded, and the Govt accepted, that this target needed to be be ‘nuanced’ to extract the impact of above-population growth in the education and health sectors. FTE growth in the year to Mar 2019 was +2.4%, well above the forecast pace of population growth, but the slowest pace of growth since the ALP Govt came to power. If we look at FTE growth excluding Queensland Health (where growth was 3.3%) and Dept of Education (where growth was 2.7%) we see FTE growth of just 0.9%, which is well below popualtion growth of 1.75%.

While the growth in the Public Sector, which is now up 13.5% since March 2015, is certainly well in excess of what has been seen in the private sector it is ridiculous to suggest, as some have done, that the increases in Public Sector employment are responsible for all the improvement in the labour market in Queensland. In the year to Mar 2019 Trend employment in Queensland was up by 36,600. Public Sector headcount increased by 6,318 in the same period; in other words increases in Public Sector employment made up 17% of the total. When the Palaszczuk Government came to power the Public Sector made up 10.33% of total employment, by Sept 2016 that percentage had increased to 10.84% and it has been in a range between that and 10.58% ever since. Currently it sits at 10.83%.

Public Sector employment growth is certainly a contributing factor in total employment growth, but to suggest that it is somehow the main driver simply doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.

The data for March also allows us to take a look at the distribution of Public Sector FTEs throughout the State. In the year to March FTE growth in Greater Brisbane was 2.6%, in the Rest of Queensland it was just 2.1%. However since the ALP government came to power FTE growth in Greater Brisbane (+13.2%) has trailed that in the Rest of QLD (+13.9%)

Since March 2015 Cairns has grown at slightly below the regional average, up 13.0%, while Townsville has seen just 9.2% growth in that time.

It is clear is that much of the regional growth has been restricted to the Gold and Sunshine Coasts where growth rates have been well in excess of average.

		Mar-19	Mar-18	%	Mar-15	%
		FTE	FTE	y/y	FTE	since Mar 15
Brisbane – East		5,142	4,918	4.6	4,537	13.4
Brisbane – North		9,776	9,642	1.4	8,254	18.5
Brisbane – South		18,227	18,940	-3.8	17,859	2.1
Brisbane – West		3,734	3,624	3.0	3,263	14.4
Brisbane Inner City		45,789	44,201	3.6	40,536	13.0
Ipswich		15,257	14,457	5.5	12,740	19.8
Logan – Beaudesert		10,835	10,391	4.3	9,352	15.9
Moreton Bay – North		9,241	9,041	2.2	8,017	15.3
Moreton Bay – South		3,729	3,380	10.3	2,974	25.4
Greater Brisbane		121,730	118,594	2.6	107,533	13.2
Cairns		13,493	13,309	1.4	11,946	13.0
Fitzroy		10,014	9,776	2.4	9,146	9.5
Darling Downs – Maranoa		4,999	4,999	0.0	4,782	4.5
Gold Coast		19,669	19,104	3.0	16,014	22.8
Mackay		6,640	6,508	2.0	5,893	12.7
Queensland – Outback		6,196	5,968	1.7	5,950	4.1
Sunshine Coast		13,138	12,798	2.7	10,376	26.6
Toowoomba		7,848	7,544	4.0	6,781	15.7
Townsville		12,999	12,805	1.5	11,903	9.2
Wide Bay		11,902	11,719	1.6	11,055	7.7
ROQ		106,896	104,656	2.1	93,847	13.9
QLD		228,626	223,250	2.4	201,379	13.5

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